Ecological regression is a statistical technique which runs regression on aggregates, often used in political science and history to estimate group voting behavior from aggregate data. For example, in a hypothetical election in the United States, if counties have a known Democratic vote (in percentage) D, and a known percentage of Catholics, C, then running a linear regression of dependent variable D against independent variable C will give D = a + bC. If the regression gives D = .22 + .45C for example, then the estimated Catholic vote (C = 1) is 67% Democratic and the non-Catholic vote (C = 0) is 22% Democratic. The technique has been often used in litigation brought under the Voting Rights Act of 1965 to see how blacks and whites voted.
See also Ecological correlation Ecological fallacy
References
Further reading Brown, Philip J.; Payne, Clive D. (1986). "Aggregate Data, Ecological Regression, and Voting Transitions". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 81 (394): 452–460. doi:10.1080/01621459.1986.10478290. JSTOR 2289235. advanced techniques King, Gary; Martin Abba Tanner; Ori Rosen (2004). Ecological Inference: New Methodological Strategies. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9780521542807. Kousser, J. Morgan (1973). "Ecological Regression and the Analysis of past Politics" (PDF). Journal of Interdisciplinary History. 4 (2): 237–262. doi:10.2307/202265. JSTOR 202265. with guide to the literature