Climate change in Iran

Iran is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Iran contributes to about 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and is ranked 8th in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) world wide and is ranked first in the MENA region due to its reliance on oil and natural gas. Climate change has led to reduced precipitation as well as increased temperatures, with Iran holding the hottest temperature recorded in Asia. The country is facing water shortages with around 35% of Iranians experiencing water scarcity. These issues are exacerbated by rapid urbanization which has led to worsened air quality and heat islands. Iran is one of only three countries not to ratify the Paris Agreement. Iran's regional climates vary from the hot, arid deserts in the south and east to cooler, milder conditions along the Caspian Sea in the north, and temperate climates in the western-south Zagros Basin and southern coastal areas. This diversity contributes to a range of natural hazards, including floods, landslides, and droughts.

Emissions

Iran is a significant contributor of GHGs due to its use and production of oil and natural gas. These resources not only serve the domestic energy needs but also serve as a significant portion of the country's exports. As Iran has not ratified the Paris Agreement it does not publish GHG emission figures and has not pledged any reduction, but 2022 emissions are estimated at 950 million tonnes CO2eq, which is almost 1.8% of global emissions. Regarding the population of Iran, per person in Iran emits more than the global average. Additionally, gas flaring activities in Iran contribute to its emissions profile, with the equivalent of around 50 million metric tons of carbon dioxide being emitted annually from gas flaring alone, accounting for 5.5%-6% of the country's total GHG emissions. The emission figures also show the low levels of country's investment in renewable energy. Although Iran has considerable renewable energy potential, the transition towards clean energy systems has been a slow process. Fossil fuel subsidies are second only to Russia, and the world's largest by share of GDP. Iran is not currently one of the top 10 countries at risk of climate disaster. However, climate change made it 16 more times likely for drought to happen in Iran. Iran has already faced several deadly floods. Iranian environmentalists and academics warn people the government is falling behind on climate adaptation, which is likely to increase vulnerability. Iran is ranked 66th, which is second to last in this year's CCPI.

Impacts on the environment

There are several potential impacts of climate change in Iran. For one, it is expected that the average temperature will increase significantly, estimated at a 2.6 degree Celsius change by 2050. This could climb up to a 5 degree Celsius increase by the end of the century. Increased average temperature is directly related to increases in heat deaths and heart-disease related deaths. In addition, heat wave frequency is predicted to increase by roughly 30%, which would also cause an estimated 30% decrease in precipitation.

Water resources Changes in precipitation are likely to cause water shortages in Iran, which poses threats to the supply of clean drinking water as well as irrigation water used for agriculture. Paired with rising temperatures, decreased availability of irrigation water would lead to significantly lower agricultural production, causing food shortages. While annual precipitation is likely to decrease, the intensity and concentration of rainy days are expected to increase in the south, which can lead to flooding. Iran already has extremely high exposure to floods, landslides, and other natural disasters, ranking sixth in the world in natural-hazard vulnerability.

Sea level rise

The southeast coast of Iran, Makran, is of great economic and environmental importance. Regarding sea level rise vulnerability based on geomorphological, environmental and socioeconomic factors, a study found that low lying coasts in Makran would particularly be vulnerable. Makran coast is more vulnerable to natural hazards because of its high rates of tectonic uplifts. In addition to putting it at greater risk of sea level rise, this can trigger extreme events such as earthquakes and tsunamis.

Ecosystem impacts Desertification is one of the main concerns for Iran as temperatures continue to rise. Government officials have recognized that over 100 million hectares of land in the country could turn to desert in the near future due to impacts of climate change. This could lead to a mass migration for an already rapidly urbanizing Iranian population. In Tehran alone, the population is increasing at roughly 2% a year currently. These affects are already starting to be seen, as it was estimated that roughly 41,000 people migrated in Iran due to natural hazards. Desertification also comes with multiple serious health and economic risks related to dust storms and defertilization of land. Water availability is another major climate change concern for Iran in the near future. Much of the available groundwater has already been used in the country due to increased water demand in the recent past. Much of this has been caused by increased well digging. The number of water wells in the country increased by 21 times from the 1980s to the 2010s. In addition, water efficiency in the public sector seems to be another issue, with water waste amounting to almost 30%. Because of this, the impacts of decreased precipitation in Iran provide even harsher ramifications than in other countries in the region, which already struggle with water allocation and efficiency.

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