science

Horizon scanning

Horizon scanning is a science topic covered in the lgStudy science library. This page brings together a partial reference excerpt, illustrations, worked examples, real-world applications and a short study plan, so you can understand Horizon scanning rather than just read about it. In short: Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice.

Key takeaways

Horizon scanning belongs to science; place it in that map before memorising details.
Learn the definition first, then one example that makes the definition concrete.
Connect Horizon scanning to a quantity you can measure, compute or draw — that is where exam questions come from.
Reproduce the core statement of Horizon scanning from memory before moving on to harder problems.

Reference excerpt

Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight. It is the early detection and assessment of emerging technologies or threats for mainly policy makers in a domain of choice. Such domains include agriculture, environmental studies, health care, biosecurity, and food safety. Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES), or view HS as a subset of ES, or at least suggest ES to have a similar goal to HS. In summary, ES has key differences to HS. ES is rather concerned to provide industry specific information for short-term decision making in a competitive environment.

Etymology One of the first usages of the term horizon scanning as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005. Then, horizon scanning was used to name detection and early evaluation of health care technologies in a European workshop in September 1997, whose participants were 27 policy makers and researchers from 12 countries. This workshop was organized as a part of the European health technology assessment project (HTA). Policy makers and planners of health services were the main target groups for knowledge produced by horizon scanning.

Phases and techniques A 2013 systematic study of 23 formally established health technology HS programs from different countries identified following common phases in a horizon scanning process:

Identify the users of the HS products. Estimate the time available for the HS effort. Conduct HS, and identify emerging technologies that potentially affect targeted domain. Filter the identified technologies by applying criteria for determining the relevance of the technologies to the HS effort. Prioritize the technologies that have passed through the filtering process by applying criteria based on stakeholders’ requirements and needs. Assess technologies of high priority for the stakeholders, and predict their potential impacts targeted domain. Use peer review to check for quality of the HS process and products. Disseminate the HS products to the relevant audiences in a timely fashion. Update the HS products on a regular basis or when a significant development occurs related to the technology. Horizon scanning shares common methods with future-oriented technology analysis. Horizon scanning includes following techniques:

Governmental bodies

European Union European Commission developed the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) in 2017, an open-access transport information system supporting the implementation of the seven Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA) roadmaps. In 2021, a horizon scanning module was added to TRIMIS. This horizon scanning framework developed by Joint Research Centre within TRIMIS uses news media, scientific publication sources, patent data sources, EU funding datasets and other sources as basis for text mining. Joint Research Centre's "Tool for Innovation Monitoring" augments horizon scanning with text mining of available literature. This tool is developed in 2020. Among the used data sources are Scopus, PATSTAT and Cordis.

Germany Umweltbundesamt applies horizon scanning since 2012 along with trend analysis.

Russia In the Russian Federation, horizon scanning is performed by Higher School of Economics and financed by Ministry of Education and Science. In 2012, Putin stated that "[a] Foresight exercise for Russia’s science and technology towards 2030 is due to be completed. It highlights specific ways to both revitalize traditional sectors and penetrate into new high-tech markets…". Russian horizon scanning team consisted of 15–20 members and conducted an online survey of 2000 experts.

Sweden Swedish Defence Research Agency has developed a software tool named HSTOOL for HS of scientific literature in 2019. The scientific literature is searched, clustered in groups that correspond to subject subfields and evaluated based on the bibliometric numbers. The clustering is performed using Gibbs sampling Dirichlet multinomial mixture model algorithm. The citation statistics are provided derived from Thomson Reuters' Web of Science.

UK In order to centralize horizon scanning, UK has founded the English Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in 2005. The Cabinet Office's Horizon Scanning Secretariat and the Government Office for Science's Horizon Scanning Centre were combined to the Horizon Scanning Programme team in 2014.

USA In 2010, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) established the first publicly funded Healthcare Horizon Scanning program of the US. Currently, since 2018, Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) funds and operates the publicly available PCORI Health Care Horizon Scanning System (HCHSS).

See also Futurology Risk analysis Scientific lacuna Technology assessment Technology scouting William J. Sutherland Jonathan Brill

References

Worked examples

Example 1 — a first encounter with Horizon scanning

Start with the simplest possible case. Write down what Horizon scanning claims or describes in one sentence, then invent the smallest concrete situation in which that sentence is true. In science, the smallest case is usually a single object, a single equation or a single measurement. Check that every symbol or term in your sentence has a meaning in that case.

Example 2 — changing one variable

Take the situation from Example 1 and change exactly one quantity: double it, halve it, or set it to zero. Predict what should happen to Horizon scanning before you calculate. Comparing your prediction with the result is the fastest way to find out whether you understand the idea or only the words.

Example 3 — an exam-style question

Typical questions about Horizon scanning ask you to (a) state it precisely, (b) apply it to given data, and (c) explain a limitation. Practise writing all three answers in under five minutes; the third part is what separates a full-mark answer from an average one.

Applications of Horizon scanning

In research: Horizon scanning appears in science research whenever the underlying quantities have to be modelled precisely. Papers usually cite it as a starting assumption and then explore where it breaks down.
In technology and industry: Engineering practice reuses Horizon scanning in design rules, simulations and safety margins. Knowing the idea lets you read a specification sheet and understand why the numbers look the way they do.
In the classroom: Horizon scanning is common in secondary-school and first-year university syllabi. It links to neighbouring topics Futures techniques, Policy, so understanding it makes those chapters shorter.
In everyday life: Look for Horizon scanning outside the textbook — in sport, cooking, traffic, electronics or the sky above you. An example you found yourself is remembered far longer than one you were given.

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How to study Horizon scanning in 20 minutes

Read the reference excerpt below once, without taking notes.
Close the page and write down what Horizon scanning means in your own words.
Compare your version with the excerpt and mark what you missed.
Work through the three examples above with pen and paper.
Explain Horizon scanning out loud to somebody else — or to Teacher Smith in the lgStudy chat.

Frequently asked questions

What is Horizon scanning in simple terms?

Why does Horizon scanning matter?

Because it connects several science ideas at once: it gives you a definition you can apply, a quantity you can calculate, and a way to check whether a result is plausible.

How should I study Horizon scanning?

Read the excerpt, restate it from memory, then work through the examples and applications listed on this page. The five-step study plan above takes about twenty minutes.

What does this page cover?

It gives you a compact reference excerpt plus original lgStudy explanations, examples, applications and study material on Horizon scanning.