Jackknife variance estimates for random forest

In statistics, jackknife variance estimates for random forest are a way to estimate the variance in random forest models, in order to eliminate the bootstrap effects.

Jackknife variance estimates The sampling variance of bagged learners is:

V ( x ) = V a r [ θ ^ ∞ ( x ) ] {\displaystyle V(x)=Var[{\hat {\theta }}^{\infty }(x)]}

Jackknife estimates can be considered to eliminate the bootstrap effects. The jackknife variance estimator is defined as:

V ^ j = n − 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( θ ^ ( − i ) − θ ¯ ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{j}={\frac {n-1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}({\hat {\theta }}_{(-i)}-{\overline {\theta }})^{2}}

In some classification problems, when random forest is used to fit models, jackknife estimated variance is defined as:

V ^ j = n − 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( t ¯ ( − i ) ⋆ ( x ) − t ¯ ⋆ ( x ) ) 2 {\displaystyle {\hat {V}}_{j}={\frac {n-1}{n}}\sum _{i=1}^{n}({\overline {t}}_{(-i)}^{\star }(x)-{\overline {t}}^{\star }(x))^{2}}

Here, t ⋆ {\displaystyle t^{\star }} denotes a decision tree after training, t ( − i ) ⋆ {\displaystyle t_{(-i)}^{\star }} denotes the result based on samples without i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation.

Examples E-mail spam problem is a common classification problem, in this problem, 57 features are used to classify spam e-mail and non-spam e-mail. Applying IJ-U variance formula to evaluate the accuracy of models with m=15,19 and 57. The results shows in paper( Confidence Intervals for Random Forests: The jackknife and the Infinitesimal Jackknife ) that m = 57 random forest appears to be quite unstable, while predictions made by m=5 random forest appear to be quite stable, this results is corresponding to the evaluation made by error percentage, in which the accuracy of model with m=5 is high and m=57 is low. Here, accuracy is measured by error rate, which is defined as:

E r r o r R a t e = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ∑ j = 1 M y i j , {\displaystyle ErrorRate={\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\sum _{j=1}^{M}y_{ij},}

Here N is also the number of samples, M is the number of classes, y i j {\displaystyle y_{ij}} is the indicator function which equals 1 when i t h {\displaystyle ith} observation is in class j, equals 0 when in other classes. No probability is considered here. There is another method which is similar to error rate to measure accuracy:

l o g l o s s = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N ∑ j = 1 M y i j l o g ( p i j ) {\displaystyle logloss={\frac {1}{N}}\sum _{i=1}^{N}\sum _{j=1}^{M}y_{ij}log(p_{ij})}

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