The Kolmogorov backward equation (KBE) and its adjoint, the Kolmogorov forward equation, are partial differential equations (PDE) that arise in the theory of continuous-time continuous-state Markov processes. Both were published by Andrey Kolmogorov in 1931. Later it was realized that the forward equation was already known to physicists under the name Fokker–Planck equation; the KBE on the other hand was new.
Overview The Kolmogorov forward equation is used to evolve the state of a system forward in time. Given an initial probability distribution p t ( x ) {\displaystyle p_{t}(x)} for a system being in state x {\displaystyle x} at time t , {\displaystyle t,} the forward PDE is integrated to obtain p s ( x ) {\displaystyle p_{s}(x)} at later times s > t . {\displaystyle s>t.} A common case takes the initial value p t ( x ) {\displaystyle p_{t}(x)} to be a Dirac delta function centered on the known initial state x . {\displaystyle x.}
The Kolmogorov backward equation is used to estimate the probability of the current system evolving so that its future state at time s > t {\displaystyle s>t} is given by some fixed probability function p s ( x ) . {\displaystyle p_{s}(x).} That is, the probability distribution in the future is given as a boundary condition, and the backwards PDE is integrated backwards in time. A common boundary condition is to ask that the future state is contained in some subset of states B , {\displaystyle B,} the target set. Writing the set membership function as 1 B , {\displaystyle 1_{B},} so that 1 B ( x ) = 1 {\displaystyle 1_{B}(x)=1} if x ∈ B {\displaystyle x\in B} and zero otherwise, the backward equation expresses the hit probability p t ( x ) {\displaystyle p_{t}(x)} that in the future, the set membership will be sharp, given by p s ( x ) = 1 B ( x ) / ‖ B ‖ . {\displaystyle p_{s}(x)=1_{B}(x)/\Vert B\Vert .} Here, ‖ B ‖ {\displaystyle \Vert B\Vert } is just the size of the set B , {\displaystyle B,} a normalization so that the total probability at time s {\displaystyle s} integrates to one.
Kolmogorov backward equation Let { X t } 0 ≤ t ≤ T {\displaystyle \{X_{t}\}_{0\leq t\leq T}} be the solution of the stochastic differential equation
d X t = μ ( t , X t ) d t + σ ( t , X t ) d W t , 0 ≤ t ≤ T , {\displaystyle dX_{t}\;=\;\mu {\bigl (}t,X_{t}{\bigr )}\,dt\;+\;\sigma {\bigl (}t,X_{t}{\bigr )}\,dW_{t},\quad 0\;\leq \;t\;\leq \;T,}
where W t {\displaystyle W_{t}} is a (possibly multi-dimensional) Wiener process (Brownian motion), μ {\displaystyle \mu } is the drift coefficient, and σ {\displaystyle \sigma } is related to the diffusion coefficient D {\displaystyle D} as D = σ 2 / 2. {\displaystyle D=\sigma ^{2}/2.} Define the transition density (or fundamental solution) p ( t , x ; T , y ) {\displaystyle p(t,x;\,T,y)} by
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