In time series analysis, the lag operator (L) or backshift operator (B) operates on an element of a time series to produce the previous element. For example, given some time series
X = { X 1 , X 2 , … } {\displaystyle X=\{X_{1},X_{2},\dots \}}
then
L X t = X t − 1 {\displaystyle LX_{t}=X_{t-1}} for all t > 1 {\displaystyle t>1}
or similarly in terms of the backshift operator B: B X t = X t − 1 {\displaystyle BX_{t}=X_{t-1}} for all t > 1 {\displaystyle t>1} . Equivalently, this definition can be represented as
X t = L X t + 1 {\displaystyle X_{t}=LX_{t+1}} for all t ≥ 1 {\displaystyle t\geq 1}
The lag operator (as well as backshift operator) can be raised to arbitrary integer powers so that
L − 1 X t = X t + 1 {\displaystyle L^{-1}X_{t}=X_{t+1}}
and
L k X t = X t − k . {\displaystyle L^{k}X_{t}=X_{t-k}.}
Lag polynomials Polynomials of the lag operator can be used, and this is a common notation for ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models. For example,
ε t = X t − ∑ i = 1 p φ i X t − i = ( 1 − ∑ i = 1 p φ i L i ) X t {\displaystyle \varepsilon _{t}=X_{t}-\sum _{i=1}^{p}\varphi _{i}X_{t-i}=\left(1-\sum _{i=1}^{p}\varphi _{i}L^{i}\right)X_{t}}
specifies an AR(p) model. A polynomial of lag operators is called a lag polynomial so that, for example, the ARMA model can be concisely specified as
φ ( L ) X t = θ ( L ) ε t {\displaystyle \varphi (L)X_{t}=\theta (L)\varepsilon _{t}}
where φ ( L ) {\displaystyle \varphi (L)} and θ ( L ) {\displaystyle \theta (L)} respectively represent the lag polynomials
φ ( L ) = 1 − ∑ i = 1 p φ i L i {\displaystyle \varphi (L)=1-\sum _{i=1}^{p}\varphi _{i}L^{i}}
and
θ ( L ) = 1 + ∑ i = 1 q θ i L i . {\displaystyle \theta (L)=1+\sum _{i=1}^{q}\theta _{i}L^{i}.\,}
Polynomials of lag operators follow similar rules of multiplication and division as do numbers and polynomials of variables. For example,
X t = θ ( L ) φ ( L ) ε t , {\displaystyle X_{t}={\frac {\theta (L)}{\varphi (L)}}\varepsilon _{t},}
means the same thing as
φ ( L ) X t = θ ( L ) ε t . {\displaystyle \varphi (L)X_{t}=\theta (L)\varepsilon _{t}.}
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