Lanchester's laws are mathematical formulas for calculating the relative strengths of military forces. The Lanchester equations are differential equations describing the time dependence of two armies' strengths A and B as a function of time, with the function depending only on A and B. In 1915 and 1916 during World War I, M. Osipov and Frederick Lanchester independently devised a series of differential equations to demonstrate the power relationships between opposing forces. Among these are what is known as Lanchester's linear law (for ancient combat) and Lanchester's square law (for modern combat with long-range weapons such as firearms). As of 2017 modified variations of the Lanchester equations continue to form the basis of analysis in many of the US Army's combat simulations, and in 2016 a RAND Corporation report examined by these laws the probable outcome in the event of a Russian invasion into the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Lanchester's linear law For ancient combat, between phalanxes of soldiers with spears for example, one soldier could only ever fight exactly one other soldier at a time. If each soldier kills, and is killed by, exactly one other, then the number of soldiers remaining at the end of the battle is simply the difference between the larger army and the smaller, assuming identical weapons. The linear law also applies to unaimed fire into an enemy-occupied area. The rate of attrition depends on the density of the available targets in the target area as well as the number of weapons shooting. If two forces, occupying the same land area and using the same weapons, shoot randomly into the same target area, they will both suffer the same rate and number of casualties, until the smaller force is eventually eliminated: the greater probability of any one shot hitting the larger force is balanced by the greater number of shots directed at the smaller force.
Lanchester's square law Lanchester's square law is also known as the N-square law.
Description
With firearms engaging each other directly with aimed shooting from a distance, they can attack multiple targets and can receive fire from multiple directions. The rate of attrition now depends only on the number of weapons shooting. Lanchester determined that the power of such a force is proportional not to the number of units it has, but to the square of the number of units. This is known as Lanchester's square law. More precisely, the law specifies the casualties a shooting force will inflict over a period of time, relative to those inflicted by the opposing force. In its basic form, the law is only useful to predict outcomes and casualties by attrition. It does not apply to whole armies, where tactical deployment means not all troops will be engaged all the time. It only works where each unit (soldier, ship, etc.) can kill only one equivalent unit at a time. For this reason, the law does not apply to machine guns, artillery with unguided munitions, or nuclear weapons. The law requires an assumption that casualties accumulate over time: it does not work in situations in which opposing troops kill each other instantly, either by shooting simultaneously or by one side getting off the first shot and inflicting multiple casualties. Note that Lanchester's square law does not apply to technological force, only numerical force; so it requires an N-squared-fold increase in quality to compensate for an N-fold decrease in quantity.
Example equations Suppose that two armies, Red and Blue, are engaging each other in combat. Red is shooting a continuous stream of bullets at Blue. Meanwhile, Blue is shooting a continuous stream of bullets at Red. Let symbol A represent the number of soldiers in the Red force. Each one has offensive firepower α, which is the number of enemy soldiers it can incapacitate (e.g., kill or injure) per unit time. Likewise, Blue has B soldiers, each with offensive firepower β. Lanchester's square law calculates the number of soldiers lost on each side using the following pair of equations. Here, dA/dt represents the rate at which the number of Red soldiers is changing at a particular instant. A negative value indicates the loss of soldiers. Similarly, dB/dt represents the rate of change of the number of Blue soldiers.
d A d t = − β B {\displaystyle {\frac {\mathrm {d} A}{\mathrm {d} t}}=-\beta B}
d B d t = − α A {\displaystyle {\frac {\mathrm {d} B}{\mathrm {d} t}}=-\alpha A}
The solution to these equations shows that:
If α=β, i.e. the two sides have equal firepower, the side with more soldiers at the beginning of the battle will win; If A=B, i.e. the two sides have equal numbers of soldiers, the side with greater firepower will win; If A>B and α>β, then Red will win, while if A<B and α<β, Blue will win; If A>B but α<β, or A<B but α>β, the winning side will depend on whether the ratio of β/α is greater or less than the square of the ratio of A/B. Thus, if numbers and firepower are unequal in opposite directions, a superiority in firepower equal to the square of the inferiority in numbers is required for victory; or, to put it another way, the effectiveness of the army rises proportionate to the square of the number of people in it, but only linearly with their fighting ability. The first three of these conclusions are obvious. The final one is the origin of the name "square law".
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