Psephology

Key takeaways

Psephology belongs to science; place it in that map before memorising details.
Learn the definition first, then one example that makes the definition concrete.
Connect Psephology to a quantity you can measure, compute or draw — that is where exam questions come from.
Reproduce the core statement of Psephology from memory before moving on to harder problems.

Reference excerpt

Psephology (; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting. Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results. The term is more common in Britain and in those English-speaking communities that rely heavily on the British standard of the language. Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in writing appeared in 1952.

Etymology The term draws from the Greek word for pebble as the ancient Greeks used pebbles to vote. (Similarly, the word "ballot" is derived from the medieval French word "ballotte", meaning a small ball.)

Applications

Psephology is a division of political science that deals with the examination as well as the statistical analysis of elections and polls. People who practise psephology are called psephologists. A few of the major tools that are used by a psephologist are historical precinct voting data, campaign finance information, and other related data. Public opinion polls also play an important role in psephology. Psephology also has various applications specifically in analysing the results of election returns for current indicators, as opposed to predictive purposes. For instance, the Gallagher Index measures the amount of proportional representation in an election. Degrees in psephology are not offered (instead, a psephologist might have a degree in political science and/or statistics). Knowledge of demographics, statistical analysis and politics (especially electoral systems and voting behaviour) are prerequisites for becoming a psephologist.

Notable psephologists Notable psephologists include:

David Andrews, who since 1973 has led the Canadian network CTV's analysis and "calling" of dozens of federal and elections and referendums Michael Barone, who has co-authored The Almanac of American Politics biennially since 1972 Kevin Bonham, Tasmanian and Australian election analyst. John Bowman Walter Dean Burnham David Butler and Robert McKenzie, who co-developed the swingometer Robert Chapman Nate Cohn Charlie Cook, publisher of The Cook Political Report F. W. S. Craig John Curtice, who has a strong track record of forecasting UK elections Vinod Dua Indian psephologist Harry Enten Thomas Ferguson, for his Investment theory of party competition Michael Gallagher who devised the Gallagher index Curtis Gans, author of Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788–2009 Luis Eduardo González Antony Green, election analyst for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation since 1991 Éric Grenier at thewrit.ca Pradeep Gupta, chairman of Axis My India Rajeeva Karandikar Peter Kellner Anthony King Steve Kornacki Allan Lichtman, professor and creator of The Keys to the White House Frank Luntz received the first ever doctorate in campaign technology from Trinity College, Oxford and won the Washington Post Crystal Ball award for most accurate polling Malcolm Mackerras (who devised the Mackerras pendulum) Robert McKenzie G. Elliott Morris Helmut Norpoth Samuel L. Popkin Victor Prescott, who preceded Antony Green as election analyst for the ABC V.C. Sekhar, an Indian academic Colin Rallings Jon Ralston Mahesh Rangarajan Ken Ritchie Prannoy Roy Larry Sabato Matthew Shugart Nate Silver, creator of the website FiveThirtyEight tracking U.S. voting trends Matt Singh Peter Snow Michael Steed Andrew S. Tanenbaum and Christopher Bates, who together write the daily electoral-vote.com website, which tracks polling for US presidential and congressional elections Michael Thrasher Sean Trende Dave Wasserman Noel Whelan, Irish politician and psephologist Yogendra Yadav, Indian politician and psephologist

Worked examples

Example 1 — a first encounter with Psephology

Start with the simplest possible case. Write down what Psephology claims or describes in one sentence, then invent the smallest concrete situation in which that sentence is true. In science, the smallest case is usually a single object, a single equation or a single measurement. Check that every symbol or term in your sentence has a meaning in that case.

Example 2 — changing one variable

Take the situation from Example 1 and change exactly one quantity: double it, halve it, or set it to zero. Predict what should happen to Psephology before you calculate. Comparing your prediction with the result is the fastest way to find out whether you understand the idea or only the words.

Example 3 — an exam-style question

Typical questions about Psephology ask you to (a) state it precisely, (b) apply it to given data, and (c) explain a limitation. Practise writing all three answers in under five minutes; the third part is what separates a full-mark answer from an average one.

Applications of Psephology

In research: Psephology appears in science research whenever the underlying quantities have to be modelled precisely. Papers usually cite it as a starting assumption and then explore where it breaks down.
In technology and industry: Engineering practice reuses Psephology in design rules, simulations and safety margins. Knowing the idea lets you read a specification sheet and understand why the numbers look the way they do.
In the classroom: Psephology is common in secondary-school and first-year university syllabi. It links to neighbouring topics Psephology, so understanding it makes those chapters shorter.
In everyday life: Look for Psephology outside the textbook — in sport, cooking, traffic, electronics or the sky above you. An example you found yourself is remembered far longer than one you were given.

How to study Psephology in 20 minutes

Read the reference excerpt below once, without taking notes.
Close the page and write down what Psephology means in your own words.
Compare your version with the excerpt and mark what you missed.
Work through the three examples above with pen and paper.
Explain Psephology out loud to somebody else — or to Teacher Smith in the lgStudy chat.

Frequently asked questions

What is Psephology in simple terms?

Psephology (; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting. Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results.

Why does Psephology matter?

Because it connects several science ideas at once: it gives you a definition you can apply, a quantity you can calculate, and a way to check whether a result is plausible.

How should I study Psephology?

Read the excerpt, restate it from memory, then work through the examples and applications listed on this page. The five-step study plan above takes about twenty minutes.

What does this page cover?

It gives you a compact reference excerpt plus original lgStudy explanations, examples, applications and study material on Psephology.