In probability theory, a Markov kernel (also known as a stochastic kernel or probability kernel) is a map that in the general theory of Markov processes plays the role that the transition matrix does in the theory of Markov processes with a finite state space.
Formal definition Let ( X , A ) {\displaystyle (X,{\mathcal {A}})} and ( Y , B ) {\displaystyle (Y,{\mathcal {B}})} be measurable spaces. A Markov kernel with source ( X , A ) {\displaystyle (X,{\mathcal {A}})} and target ( Y , B ) {\displaystyle (Y,{\mathcal {B}})} , sometimes written as κ : ( X , A ) → ( Y , B ) {\displaystyle \kappa :(X,{\mathcal {A}})\to (Y,{\mathcal {B}})} , is a function κ : B × X → [ 0 , 1 ] {\displaystyle \kappa :{\mathcal {B}}\times X\to [0,1]} with the following properties:
For every (fixed) B 0 ∈ B {\displaystyle B_{0}\in {\mathcal {B}}} , the map x ↦ κ ( B 0 , x ) {\displaystyle x\mapsto \kappa (B_{0},x)} is A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} -measurable For every (fixed) x 0 ∈ X {\displaystyle x_{0}\in X} , the map B ↦ κ ( B , x 0 ) {\displaystyle B\mapsto \kappa (B,x_{0})} is a probability measure on ( Y , B ) {\displaystyle (Y,{\mathcal {B}})}
In other words it associates to each point x ∈ X {\displaystyle x\in X} a probability measure κ ( d y | x ) : B ↦ κ ( B , x ) {\displaystyle \kappa (dy|x):B\mapsto \kappa (B,x)} on ( Y , B ) {\displaystyle (Y,{\mathcal {B}})} such that, for every measurable set B ∈ B {\displaystyle B\in {\mathcal {B}}} , the map x ↦ κ ( B , x ) {\displaystyle x\mapsto \kappa (B,x)} is measurable with respect to the σ {\displaystyle \sigma } -algebra A {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}} .
Examples
Simple random walk on the integers Take X = Y = Z {\displaystyle X=Y=\mathbb {Z} } , and A = B = P ( Z ) {\displaystyle {\mathcal {A}}={\mathcal {B}}={\mathcal {P}}(\mathbb {Z} )} (the power set of Z {\displaystyle \mathbb {Z} } ). Then a Markov kernel is fully determined by the probability it assigns to singletons { m } , m ∈ Y = Z {\displaystyle \{m\},\,m\in Y=\mathbb {Z} } for each n ∈ X = Z {\displaystyle n\in X=\mathbb {Z} } :
κ ( B | n ) = ∑ m ∈ B κ ( { m } | n ) , ∀ n ∈ Z , ∀ B ∈ B {\displaystyle \kappa (B|n)=\sum _{m\in B}\kappa (\{m\}|n),\qquad \forall n\in \mathbb {Z} ,\,\forall B\in {\mathcal {B}}} . Now the random walk κ {\displaystyle \kappa } that goes to the right with probability p {\displaystyle p} and to the left with probability 1 − p {\displaystyle 1-p} is defined by
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