A multiple breadbasket failure is the simultaneous disruption of grain production in several major agricultural regions globally, primarily due to acute climate events. This phenomenon has gained increasing attention in climate risk assessment and food security studies, particularly as climate change threatens to increase its likelihood in coming decades, potentially resulting in international food insecurity, economic crises, and significant civil and political unrest.
Overview Multiple breadbasket failure occurs when concurrent climate events simultaneously impact grain production in multiple key agricultural regions, known as breadbaskets, thus significantly affecting global food supply. These regions are primarily responsible for producing the world's four main grain crops: rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Global nutrition heavily relies on these primary grains, which constitute nearly half of the average global caloric intake, of which rice and wheat alone contribute 19% and 18% of global calories respectively.
Vulnerabilities The world's concentrated dependence on a small number of primary crops increases systemic vulnerability. Global caloric intake could be significantly reduced if climate conditions significantly reduce the yield of one primary crop, compared to a more diverse variety of crops that could result in greater flexibility with what climate conditions allow to grow and have high yields. Food production exhibits significant geographic concentration, with approximately 60% of global food production occurring in only five nations: China, the United States, India, Brazil, and Argentina. Within these nations, production is further concentrated in specific regions. For instance, five states in north India accounted for 88% of the country's wheat production, while five Midwestern states generate 61% of U.S. corn output, according to a June 2016 United States Department of Agriculture report. A 2012 report by the United Nations found that developing countries increasingly depend on grain imports, due to international market purchases frequently being more economically viable than domestic production. Nations such as Mexico, Egypt, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia maintain significant grain import requirements, while China heavily relies on soybean imports. While grain storage serves as a buffer against production shortfalls, current global storage capacity may prove insufficient to withstand major production shocks, despite historically high present-day levels.
Role of climate change Research and statistical analysis conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute indicates that ongoing climate change is increasing both the likelihood and severity of future multiple breadbasket failures. A 2020 report by the institute estimated that by 2030, the probability of a greater than 15% shock to global grain production is projected to double, rising from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-50 year occurrence and representing an 18% likelihood of such an event occurring within the 2030s. Furthermore, when extreme events push agricultural systems beyond critical environmental thresholds, they can induce rapid, nonlinear changes that may be difficult or impossible to reverse. This nonlinearity could manifest through sudden shifts in crop viability across regions, changes in soil fertility, or alterations to regional water availability that affect agricultural productivity. These interactions are particularly significant in major food-producing regions, where concurrent extreme events can create synchronized stress on global food production.
Temperature rise Corn production faces particular risk due to it requiring temperatures not higher than about 20 °C (68 °F) to grow well, with higher temperatures resulting significantly smaller yields. Key growing regions like the Midwestern United States face increased risk of crop failures or significantly decreased yields from both higher summer temperatures and excessive spring precipitation. Rice and soybean production also show heightened vulnerability to climate-related disruptions. Wheat production could be a notable exception to the other three primary grains, as agricultural and climate research indicated that it may benefit from higher temperatures in some major breadbaskets. A 2024 study using Earth System Model climate simulations determined that at 1.5 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, approximately 35% of major breadbasket regions are projected to experience extreme heat events. The emulated percentage increased to about 50% at 2.0 °C warming, and further rises to approximately 70% and 90% at 3.0 °C and 4.0 °C warming respectively. Hot spells were projected to impact up to 96-98% of global agricultural land under high-emission scenarios. A different 2024 study using climate model simulations to emulate the period 2028-2057, corresponding to approximately 2 °C warming above preindustrial CO2 levels under high-emission scenarios, projected significant increases in concurrent heat exposure across major agricultural regions. More specifically, the simulation projected the probability of major breadbaskets simultaneously experiencing at least five days of extreme heat during reproductive periods across more than half their croplands to rise from being "virtually unlikely" at the time of the study to 43% for maize production regions, 27% for wheat production regions, and 33% for both rice and soybean production region. Furthermore, the simulation projected the probabilities to rise to 91% for maize production, 83% for wheat production, 87% for rice production, and 80% for soybean production in 2050‒2079, corresponding to about 3 °C warming. The study predicted that the Midwestern United States, Mediterranean, and northern South Asia were projected to experience extreme heat affecting more than half their maize reproductive days by 2028-2057. Central Canada and Eastern Europe were projected to suffer nearly two-thirds of wheat reproductive days experiencing extreme heat by 2050-2079.
Precipitation Earth System Model climate simulations projected that less than 10% of agricultural land would be impacted by wet spells at up to 1.5 °C warming, but would increase to roughly 20% for rice, corn, and soybean areas at 4.0 °C warming. By 2.0 °C warming, approximately 85-90% of agricultural land was projected to be susceptible to at least one type of climate extreme, whether drought, excess rainfall, or a heat wave.
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