The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt. It is driven by differences in temperature and salt content and it is an important component of the climate system. However, the AMOC is not a static feature of global circulation. It is sensitive to changes in temperature, salinity and atmospheric forcings. Climate reconstructions from δ18O proxies from Greenland reveal an abrupt transition in global temperature about every 1470 years. These changes may be due to changes in ocean circulation, which suggests that there are two equilibria possible in the AMOC. Stommel made a two-box model in 1961 which showed two different states of the AMOC are possible on a single hemisphere. Stommel’s result with an ocean box model has initiated studies using three dimensional ocean circulation models, confirming the existence of multiple equilibria in the AMOC.
The AMOC
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents that carry warm water from the tropics northwards into the North Atlantic. It is driven by differences in temperature and salt content. The present-day AMOC is mainly temperature-driven, which means that there is a strong AMOC characterized by sinking in the North. It is, in principle, also possible that upwelling can take place at low latitudes. This was studied by Stommel in 1961. The climate of the Northern hemisphere is influenced by the oceanic transport of heat and salt from the tropics to the sub-polar regions. The ocean releases heat to the atmosphere in the sub-polar Atlantic region. This Northward heat transport is responsible for the relatively warm climate in Northwest Europe. Changes in the strength of the AMOC are thought to have been responsible for significant changes in past climate. A collapse of the AMOC would have large consequences on the temperatures in the North-Atlantic region. It could lead to a reduction of air temperatures up to 10 °C.
Geological record of abrupt changes in the climate
The Cenozoic Era The Cenozoic Era covers the period from 65.5 Ma to present. It is the most recent of the three classic geological eras (Paleozoic, Mesozoic, Cenozoic). The earth is mostly characterized as a "Greenhouse world" during the early Cenozoic times, with no ice and high temperatures. The widespread occurrence of large glaciations started on Antarctica ~34 Ma in the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT). During this time, the world became an "Icehouse world" like we know it today, with ice sheets present in both poles simultaneously.
Dansgaard-Oeschger events There are also abrupt changes in the climate in the last glacial period. Willi Dansgaard analyzed the isotopic composition of ice cores from Camp Century in Greenland in 1972. He reported that the last glacial period showed more than 20 abrupt interstadials marked by very intense warming. Hans Oeschger reported 12 years later that the abrupt changes were accompanied by sudden increases in CO2 in the Greenland ice cores. These abrupt and dramatic changes in climate were from then on known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events (DO-events) and they occur approximately every 1470 years. Paleo-proxy records from δ18O proxies have been linked to the evidence of temperature fluctuations of this magnitude. The cause for these fluctuations is still uncertain, but recent research suggests that they are due to changes in ocean circulation. These changes could be induced by North Atlantic freshwater perturbations.
Stommel box model Several simple box models were used to study the changes in AMOC caused by for example changes in freshwater fluxes or salinity fluxes. Stommel was the first one to do so and devised a single-hemispheric box model in 1961 (Stommel box model). He made this model to explore the existence of stable responses to a constant forcing with either a temperate-driven or a salinity-driven AMOC. Stommel made use of a fundamental assumption that the strength of AMOC is linearly proportional to the equator–pole density difference. This assumption implies that AMOC is driven by surface thermohaline forcing.The model consists of two boxes. One box is at a high latitude (polar box) and the other one is at a low latitude (equatorial box). The high-latitude box has uniform temperature and salinity (T1,S1), this holds as well for the equatorial box (T2,S2). A linear equation of state is assumed:
ρ = ρ 0 − α ( T − T 0 ) + β ( S − S 0 ) {\displaystyle \rho =\rho _{0}-\alpha (T-T_{0})+\beta (S-S_{0})} , where ρ0, T0 and S0 are the reference density, temperature and salinity, respectively. The thermal and haline coefficients are indicated by α and β. As said before, the flow strength between the boxes is set by the density difference between the boxes:
ψ = k ( ρ 1 − ρ 2 ) {\displaystyle \psi =k(\rho _{1}-\rho _{2})} , where k is a hydraulic pumping constant. Each box exchanges heat with the atmosphere. The atmospheric temperatures (T1a,T2a) are fixed in this model. The evaporated water (η2 ≥ 0) in the equatorial box is precipitated, via the atmosphere, in the high-latitude box. The governing differential equations for the temperatures and salinities in the Stommel box model are:
d T 1 d t = | ψ | Δ T + λ T ( T 1 a − T 1 ) {\displaystyle {dT_{1} \over dt}=|\psi |\Delta T+\lambda _{T}(T_{1}^{a}-T_{1})}
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