Climate change in Nigeria has caused increasing temperatures and rainfall variability (increasing in coastal areas and declining in continental areas) resulting in drought, desertification, rising sea levels, erosion, floods, thunderstorms, bush fires, landslides, land degradation and more frequent, extreme weather conditions. Climate change is leading to biodiversity loss, reduced food and water security, increasing poverty, conflict, displacement, economic instability and negative health outcomes in Nigeria. Nigeria is highly vulnerable to and not well prepared to deal with the effects of climate change. The agricultural sector is particularly most vulnerable.
Nigeria is in the top 25 highest greenhouse gas emitters, contributing 0.8% of the global total emissions. Nigeria has committed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20% on its own, and by 47% if it receives international support, by 2030. The country has also committed to net zero by 2060. Nigeria's climate change mitigation and adaptation plans focus on agriculture and food security (through e.g.: climate-smart agriculture), forests and biodiversity, water resources, energy and infrastructure (e.g.: transitioning to renewable energies like solar), health, human settlement, industry and commerce, transportation and communication. While there is some discussion about necessary capacity building at the individual, group and community level to engage in climate change responses, there is less attention given to higher levels of capacity building at the state and national level. The challenges of climate change are not the same across all geographical areas of the country. This is because of the two precipitation regimes: high precipitation in parts of the Southeast and Southwest and low in the Northern Region. These regimes can result in aridity, desertification and drought in the north; erosion and flooding in the south and other regions.
Greenhouse gas emissions
In the year 2023, Nigeria's total greenhouse gas emissions was 60.73 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e), which is less than 0.8% of global emissions. This means that emissions per person per year is less than 2 tons, compared to the global average of over 6 tons. However, Nigeria is in the top 25 highest emitters in the world. These greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide and methane are mostly generated from oil and gas production, land-use change, forestry, agriculture and fugitive emissions. The economy is very dependent on oil production, so it may be hard to reach the target of net zero emissions by 2060. Economists say that gasoline subsidies are "ruinous". It is recorded that the transportation sector is responsible for 28% of the greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. The main source of these emissions is the combustion of fossil fuels, such as gasoline and diesel, in cars. The production of electricity, which makes up 25% of emissions, also adds to the emissions of greenhouse gases. The industrial sector, responsible for 23% of emissions, mostly employs fossil fuels for chemical reactions and energy production. 13% of emissions, including heat and refrigeration in buildings, come from the commercial and residential sectors. Livestock and agricultural soils are the main sources of agriculture, which contributes 10% of emissions. 12% of emissions are offset by land use and forestry, since managed forests have been a net sink for emissions since 1990. In order to warm the biosphere to a temperature suitable for human habitation, greenhouse gases (GHGs) absorb and reemit a considerable portion of the 161 W m−2, making them indispensable for life on Earth. Global surface temperatures have recently increased due to biosphere warming caused by rising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Since 1750, agriculture has produced 10–14% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions worldwide each year, directly influencing five of the main radiative sources of climate forcing. More greenhouse gases are impacted by agriculture than not.
Impacts on the natural environment
Current climate Nigeria has three different climate zones: a Sahelian hot and semi-arid climate in the north, a tropical monsoon climate in the south, and a tropical savannah environment in the center regions. While the core regions only get one rainy and one dry season, the southern parts see heavy rainfall from March to October. There is a lot of annual variances in the north, which causes droughts and flooding. The mean annual temperature of the country varies greatly between coastal and interior regions; the plateau has a mean temperature between 21 °C and 27 °C, while the interior lowlands typically see temperatures above 27 °C. There is variation in rainfall from April to October, and the average annual temperature is 26.9 °C. Nigeria has a tropical climate with two seasons: (wet and dry). Inland areas especially those in the northeast, experience the greatest fluctuations in temperatures as before the outset of rains, temperatures sometimes rise as high as 44 °C and drops to 6 °C between December and February. In Maiduguri, the maximum temperature may rise to 38 °C in April and May while in the same season frosts might occur at night. For example, in Lagos, the average high is 31 °C and low is 23 °C in January and 28 °C and 23 °C in June. The southeast regions especially located around the coast like Bonny Island (south of Port Harcourt), east of Calabar receive the highest amount of annual rainfalls of around 4,000 millimeters.
Changes in climate Climate change in Nigeria is shifting climate regions. The desert region in the North is receding North, steppe (Grassland) region in the North is set to expand southwards, the tropical savanna climate is expanding, and tropical monsoon regions in the South are moving northwards, replacing tropical rainforest.
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