Nuclear forensics is the investigation of nuclear materials to find evidence for the source, trafficking, and enrichment of the material. The material can be recovered from various sources including dust from the vicinity of a nuclear facility, or from the radioactive debris following a nuclear explosion. Results of nuclear forensic testing are used by different organisations to make decisions. The information is typically combined with other sources of information such as law enforcement and intelligence information.
History
Origins The first investigative radiochemical measurements began in the early days of nuclear fission. In 1944, the US Air Force made the first attempts to detect fissiogenic 133Xe in the atmosphere in order to indicate the production of plutonium through the irradiation of uranium and chemical reprocessing in an effort to gather intelligence on the status of the German nuclear program. However, no 133Xe was detected.
Post-RDS-1 In the subsequent years it became increasingly valuable to gather information on the Soviet nuclear weapons program, which resulted in the development of technologies that could gather airborne particles in a WB-29 weather reconnaissance plane. On September 3, 1949, these particles were used to determine that the detonation time of the first Soviet atomic test, "Joe 1". Further analysis revealed that this bomb was a replicate of the "Fat Man", which was the bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945. This investigative methodology combined radiochemistry and other techniques to gather intelligence on nuclear activities. During the 1961 Soviet nuclear tests, most of the Novaya Zemlya shots were likely monitored by RB-47 aircraft flown from RAF Brize Norton and elsewhere. In August, Khrushchev had announced the existence 100 megaton Soviet bomb, ultimately tested as the Tsar Bomba. A JKC-135A was rapidly outfitted to monitor the test, under Operation Speed Light Bravo. Photomutiplier detectors in UV, visibile, and near-IR were used, with multiplication factors above 100 million. Cine and stills cameras were used, with lens resolutions up to 70 mm. One side of the aircraft was scorched. It has been argued that if the Tsar Bomba had been configured to yield 100 megatons instead of the decided 50, that the aircraft would have been destroyed. The United Kingdom worked with the US to monitor Soviet tests. RAF debris collection missions flew from the summer of 1949 from Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar, filling the North Atlantic. British scientists also used unconventional methods for sourcing possible bomb debris: workers holidaying in Europe were instructed to collect pinecones, and crates of tea leaves were imported from China.
Post-Cold War The first seizures of nuclear or otherwise radioactive material were reported in Switzerland and Italy in 1991. Later, reports of incidents of nuclear material occurred in Germany, the Czech Republic, Hungary and other central European countries. Nuclear forensics became a new branch of scientific research with the intent of not only determining the nature of the material, but also the intended use of the seized material as well as its origin and about the potential trafficking routes. Nuclear forensics relies on making these determinations through measurable parameters including, but not limited to chemical impurities, isotopic composition, microscopic appearance, and microstructure. By measuring these parameters, conclusions can be drawn as to the origin of the material. Identification of these parameters is an ongoing area of research, however, data interpretation also relies on the availability of reference information and on knowledge of the fuel cell operations. The first seizures of nuclear materials from trafficking in the early 1990s allowed the nuclear forensic methodology to be adopted by a wider scientific community. When scientific laboratories outside the weapons and intelligence community took an interest in this methodology was when the term "Nuclear Forensics" was coined. Unlike standard forensics, nuclear forensics focuses mainly on the nuclear or radioactive material and aims to provide knowledge of the intended use of the materials. In 1994 560 grams of plutonium and uranium oxide were intercepted at Munich airport in an airplane coming from Moscow. The precise composition was 363 grams plutonium (87% of which was Plutonium-239) and 122 grams of uranium. It later emerged through a German parliamentary enquiry that the purchase had been arranged and financed by the German Federal Intelligence Service. U.S. Department of Energy official Jay A. Tilden has advocated for the use of nuclear forensics science to assign responsibility for, or resolve ambiguity about, "unattributed nuclear events," such as accidents at nuclear facilities, nuclear weapons mishaps in denied geographic areas, accidental nuclear detonations, the limited use of nuclear weapons and subsequent denial of responsibility by the perpetrator, and attempts to blame a clandestine nuclear attack on non-state actors. An example of an unattributed nuclear event was the September 2017 unattributed release of the radioisotope ruthenium across central and eastern Europe and Asia.
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