During the Russo-Ukrainian war, several senior Russian politicians, including President Vladimir Putin, former president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, have made a number of statements widely seen as nuclear blackmail. The possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons, and the risk of broader nuclear escalation, has been widely discussed by commentators and in the media. US scholars have called the invasion "the type of scenario most likely to trigger a nuclear war in Europe". On the other hand, British historian Lawrence Freedman argued the risk was low: "In Putin's mind, nuclear use is best kept for the most extreme contingencies when the state faces an existential threat." Some of the Russian government's "red lines" have been crossed without nuclear response. For example, the June 2025 Operation Spiderweb coordinated drone attack by Ukraine on Russia's strategic bomber force, which is in use for conventional attacks against Ukraine. In October 2022, Russian officials accused Ukraine of preparing a radiological weapon in the form of a dirty bomb. An International Atomic Energy Agency investigation refuted the claim. US officials feared Russia would use the claims or a false flag attack to establish pretext for a nuclear strike on Ukraine. In March 2023, Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, via Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, and gravity bombs for Su-25 aircraft. This was possibly completed in late 2024. On November 21, 2024, following an announcement about changes to its nuclear doctrine, Russia fired an Oreshnik ballistic missile targeting the Pivdenmash (Yuzhmash) aerospace factory in Dnipro, Ukraine. This was the first use of a typically nuclear-armed multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle in combat. It was partly in response to a US policy allowing ATACMS and Storm Shadow use for attacks in Russia. In addition to nuclear weapons threats, the Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has led to a crisis over the safety of the plant and the risk of a nuclear disaster.
Occupation of Chernobyl by Russian forces
The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone was the site of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces during the Battle of Chernobyl as part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On 24 February 2022, Russian forces captured the plant. The resulting activity reportedly led to a 20-fold increase of detected radiation levels in the area due to disturbance of contaminated soil. On 9 March 2022, there was a power cut at the plant itself. No radiation leaks were reported as of 9 March 2022. However, Ukrainian authorities reported that there was a risk of a radiation leak due to spent fuel coolant being unable to circulate properly. On 30 March 2022, Russian forces formally handed control of the plant back to its employees, and most occupying forces withdrew. Ukrainian National Guard personnel were moved to Belarus as prisoners of war. On 2 April 2022, Ukrainian media reported that the flag of Ukraine was raised at the plant. According to Chernobyl operator Energoatom, Russian troops had dug trenches in the most contaminated part of the Chernobyl exclusion zone, receiving "significant doses" of radiation. BBC News mentioned unconfirmed reports that some were being treated in Belarus. The equipment of Chernobyl nuclear power plant and radioactive materials were looted by Russian forces.
Russian nuclear blackmail
2022 Late in the evening of 27 February 2022, three days after the launch of the Russian invasion, President Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces to go into a "special mode of combat duty", a state of high alert. On 20 April 2022, Russia carried out its first test launch of the RS-28 Sarmat, a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Putin said the new missile could defeat any missile defences, and that it should cause countries threatening Russia to "think twice". The United States Department of Defense confirmed that Russia had properly notified the U.S. about the launch in advance, pursuant to New START, and that the U.S. considered the launch to be a routine test and not a threat. On 24 April, in apparent response to US secretary of state Antony Blinken's meeting with Zelenskyy in Kyiv on 23 April, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stated that further support of Ukraine could cause tensions which could potentially lead to a World War III scenario involving Russia's full arsenal of weapons. The day after Lavrov's comments, CNBC reported that US secretary Lloyd Austin referred to Russia's nuclear war rhetoric as being "dangerous and unhelpful". In an apparent response to Germany deploying armed tanks to Ukraine, Putin announced in Russia's main legislative assembly that Russia would respond to any combative military provocation from outside of Ukraine with prompt peremptory action possible only with Russia's unique arsenal of nuclear weapons. Pentagon Press secretary John Kirby called Putin's assertion of nuclear potency contrary to the process of the peaceful resolution of the current conflict in Ukraine. On 29 May, after repudiating accusations made against Russia regarding atrocities in Bucha, the Russian ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, said in an interview with the BBC that he did not believe Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine until Russian sovereignty was found to be in peril. The state-owned Russian television channel Russia-1 has been noted for the frequency with which its presenters propose Russian nuclear attack on Western countries, including the United Kingdom and United States of America.
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