Peak coal is the moment of maximum consumption of coal, after which it is assumed that coal consumption would decrease. Historically, it was widely believed that the supply-side would eventually drive peak coal due to the depletion of coal reserves. However, since the increasing global efforts to limit climate change, peak coal has been driven by demand. This is due in large part to the rapid expansion of natural gas and renewable energy. As of 2024 over 40% of all energy sector carbon dioxide emissions are from coal, and many countries have pledged to phase-out coal. The peak of coal's share in the global energy mix was in 2008, when coal accounted for 30% of global energy production. Coal consumption is declining in the United States and Europe, as well as developed economies in Asia. However production increased in India, Indonesia and China, which offset the falls in other regions. In 2024 the International Energy Agency said: “While coal demand in advanced economies continues to shrink, this decline is expected to be offset by growth in a few emerging and developing economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, where the additional energy demand associated with economic growth is set to be met with a variety of sources, including coal. Despite increasing renewable electricity generation, India is expected to see the largest increase in coal use in the coming years, driven by consumption from the power sector and industry. Still, as has been the case for 25 years, China, which consumes 30% more coal than the rest of the world put together, will continue to define global trends.”
Peak coal demand
Although reserves of coal remain abundant, consumption of coal has declined in many countries. In 2016, Scotland closed its last coal-fired power plant, accommodated by an increase in nuclear power generation (to 42.8% of 2016 output). Scottish renewable energy comprised 42.9% of 2016 output. The term "peak coal" is now used primarily to refer to a peak and subsequent decline in global and national coal consumption. In 2016 experts estimated that China, the world's largest coal consumer, reached peak coal in 2013, and that the world may have passed peak coal. However, in 2017, for the first time in four years, demand for coal rose. As per Coal 2024 – IEA’s annual coal market report, global coal use has rebounded strongly after plummeting at the height of the pandemic. It is poised to rise to 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. According to the report, demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027. As of 2015, China accounted for 50.0 percent of world coal consumption. Chinese coal consumption fell in 2014 and 2015. The last previous decline in Chinese coal consumption had been in 1997 and 1998. While consumption in China and the United States declined in 2015, that of India continued to rise and, in 2015, India surpassed the United States and became the world's second-largest consumer of coal.
Peak coal production for individual nations
As of 2018, the top coal-extracting countries were China (46.0%), India (9.5%), US (8.6%), Indonesia (6.8%), Australia (6.1%)
China
China is the largest consumer and mines the most out of the countries that produce coal. In 2019 the IEA predicted that coal use would plateau in 2022, whereas UBS bank forecasts 2023. In 2020 China set a carbon neutral target date. In 2021, the government ordered all coal mines to operate at full capacity at all times, including holidays; approved new mines, and eliminated restrictions on coal imports. As of 2020, over half of the world's coal-generated electricity was produced in China. China's most recent five-year plan for coal plans to peak coal consumption in the period 2026-2030.
India
In 2018 India was the world's second largest coal producer. Partly due to the fall in cost of LPG and renewables peak consumption is forecast for the 2020s, or 2030.
United States
Although Hubbert's analysis in 1956 projected total extraction to peak in about 2150, records show that extraction reached an energy peak in 1998 and a tonnage peak in 2008.
Coal mass US coal extraction peaked during World War I, then declined sharply during the depression years of the 1930s. Coal extraction peaked again in the 1940s, then declined during the 1950s. Then coal extraction revived, and was on a nearly continual increasing trend from 1962 to 2008, exceeding the previous peaks. Extraction in 2008 was a record 1.17 billion short tons. High-BTU anthracite coal peaked in 1914; and declined from 44 million tons in 1950 to 1.6 million tons in 2007. Bituminous coal extraction has also been declining since 1990. The gap has been taken up by large increases in subbituminous coal extraction. Comprehensive analysis of historical trends in US coal extraction and reserve estimates, along with a possible future outlook, was published in scientific journals on coal geology in 2009. In 1956, Hubbert estimated that US coal extraction would peak in about the year 2150. In 2004, Gregson Vaux used the Hubbert model to predict peak US coal extraction in 2032. In 2014, a model published in the International Journal of Coal Geology forecast a U.S. raw tonnage peak from between 2009 and 2023, with the most likely year of the peak in 2010.
Energetic peak Over the years, the average energy content per ton of coal mined in the US has declined as mining shifts to coals of lower rank. Although the tonnage of coal mined in the United States reached its latest peak in 2008, the peak in terms of coal energy content occurred in 1998, at 598 Millions of metric tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe); by 2005 this had fallen to 576 Mtoe, or about 4% lower.
Australia
Australia has substantial coal resources, mostly brown coal. It is responsible for almost 40% of global coal exports worldwide, and much of its current electricity is generated from coal-fired power stations. There are tentative plans to very slowly phase out coal electricity generation in favor of gas, although these plans are still a topic of much debate in Australian politics. Groups such as the Australian Greens, suggest that coal be left in the ground to avoid its potential combustion either in Australia or in importer nations. Because most of the country's coal is exported it is vulnerable to reductions by importing countries such as China.
Indonesia
Indonesia is the world's biggest thermal coal exporter. Government policy is unclear.
Turkey
Production peaked in 2018 at just over 100 million tonnes.
United Kingdom
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