A performance gap is a disparity that is found between the energy use predicted and carbon emissions in the design stage of buildings and the energy use of those buildings in operation. Research in the UK suggests that actual carbon emissions from new homes can be 2.5 times the design estimates, on average. For non-domestic buildings, the gap is even higher - actual carbon emissions as much as 3.8 times the design estimates, on average. There are established tools for reducing the performance gap, by reviewing project objectives, outline and detailed design drawings, design calculations, implementation of designs on site, and post-occupancy evaluation. NEF's Assured Performance Process (APP) is one such tool, which is being used extensively on different sites that form part of East Hampshire's Whitehill and Bordon new town development, one of the largest regeneration projects anywhere in the UK, with high ambitions for both environmental performance and health.
Classification of factors that contribute to the performance gap The performance gap is produced mainly due to uncertainties. Uncertainties are found in any “real-world” system, and buildings are no exception. As early as 1978, Gero and Dudnik wrote a paper presenting a methodology to solve the problem of designing subsystems (HVAC) subjected to uncertain demands. After that, other authors have shown an interest in the uncertainties that are present in building design; Ramallo-González classified uncertainties in building design/construction in three different groups:
Environmental. Uncertainty in weather prediction under changing climate; and uncertain weather data information due to the use of synthetic weather data files: (1) use of synthetic years that do not represent a real year, and (2) use of a synthetic year that has not been generated from recorded data in the exact location of the project but in the closest weather station. Workmanship and quality of building elements. Differences between the design and the real building: Conductivity of thermal bridges, conductivity of insulation, value of infiltration or U-Values of walls and windows. There may be optimism bias by designers, where expectations about what is possible on site are unrealistic, and/or buildability fails to get adequate attention during design. Behavioural. All other parameters linked to human behaviour i.e. door and window opening, heating regimes, use of appliances, occupancy patterns or cooking habits.
Type 1: Environmental uncertainties The type 1 from this grouping, have been divided here into two main groups: one concerning the uncertainty due to climate change; and the other concerning uncertainties due to the use of synthetic weather data files. Concerning the uncertainties due to climate change: buildings have long life spans, for example, in England and Wales, around 40% of the office blocks existing in 2004 were built before 1940 (30% if considered by floor area). and, 38.9% of English dwellings in 2007 were built before 1944. This long life span makes buildings likely to operate with climates that might change due to global warming. De Wilde and Coley showed how important is to design buildings that take into consideration climate change and that are able to perform well in future weathers. Concerning the uncertainties due to the use of synthetic weather data files: Wang et al. showed the impact that uncertainties in weather data (among others) may cause in energy demand calculations. The deviation in calculated energy use due to variability in the weather data were found to be different in different locations from a range of (-0.5% – 3%) in San Francisco to a range of (-4% to 6%) in Washington D.C. The ranges were calculated using TMY as the reference. These deviations on the demand were smaller than the ones due to operational parameters. For those, the ranges were (-29% – 79%) for San Francisco and (-28% – 57%) for Washington D.C. The operation parameters were those linked with occupants’ behaviour. The conclusion of this paper is that occupants will have a larger impact in energy calculations than the variability between synthetically generated weather data files. The spatial resolution of weather data files was the concern covered by Eames et al. Eames showed how a low spatial resolution of weather data files can be the cause of disparities of up to 40% in the heating demand.
… excerpt ends here. Continue reading the full article.
