Predicted outcome value theory introduced in 1996 by Michael Sunnafrank, posits that people seek information in initial interactions and relationships to determine the benefits of interpersonal relationships by predicting the value of future outcomes whether negative or positive. If a person predicts a positive outcome in the relationship this can lead to increased attraction, however if a person predicts a negative outcome then he or she would pursue limited interaction or possibly relationship termination. The processes of predicted outcome value directly link to continued relationship development and communication as well as stronger attraction and intimacy within the relationship. Predicted outcome value theory proposes that initial interaction behaviors serve two related functions in individuals' attempts to maximize future relational outcomes. First, communication is directed at reducing uncertainty (Berger & Calabrese, 1975) about new acquaintances to determine likely outcome-values for the relational future. Second, communication proceeds in a manner predicted to result in the most positive outcomes. In a broad sense, these outcome value predictions would lead to communicative attempts to terminate or curtail the conversation, to continue the entry-level conversation, or to escalate the conversation and relationship beyond this level. Attempts to continue or escalate would result from positive predicted outcome values, while attempts to terminate or curtail would result from negative predictions. Given this, predicted outcome value theory proposes that several specific behaviors associated with conversational termination-escalation should be related to predicted outcome value levels. Among these, Sunnafrank (1986) posits that predicted outcome value is positively related to amount of verbal communication, intimacy level of communication content, nonverbal affiliative expressiveness, and liking.
Key propositions of predicted outcome value theory 1. Attraction increases as the predicted outcome value increases 2. Prediction of positive future outcomes leads to future interactions 3. Prediction of negative future outcomes ends future interactions 4. People focus and discuss topics in conversations that facilitate positive predicted outcomes
Related Predicted outcome value theory is an alternative to uncertainty reduction theory, which Charles R. Berger and Richard J. Calabrese introduced in 1975. Uncertainty reduction theory states that the driving force in initial interactions is to collect information to predict attitudes and behaviors for future relationship development. Sunnafrank challenges uncertainty reduction theory with his predicted outcome value theory in that initial interactions are not solely about reducing uncertainty within the relationship but motivated by the predicted outcome value. Sunnafrank ascertains that initial interactions only lead to continued relationship development after the person has determined future rewards and costs of that relationship. However, when looking at the relationships of the implications of both theories, there are many parallels. The propositions set forth by predicted outcome value theory by Sunnafrank almost exactly mirror the eight axioms of Berger and Calabrese's uncertainty reduction theory. When looking at predicted outcome value theory, there are positive and negative predicted outcome values (POV) that are produced based on initial interactions. When there are positive predicted outcome values, they align with all of the same positive implications of uncertainty reduction. In other words, when dealing with positive feelings after an initial interaction, the implications of how that initial interaction unfolded align with the axioms of uncertainty reduction theory. For example,
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