science

Roy Amara

Roy Amara is a science topic covered in the lgStudy science library. This page brings together a partial reference excerpt, illustrations, worked examples, real-world applications and a short study plan, so you can understand Roy Amara rather than just read about it. In short: Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Key takeaways

Roy Amara belongs to science; place it in that map before memorising details.
Learn the definition first, then one example that makes the definition concrete.
Connect Roy Amara to a quantity you can measure, compute or draw — that is where exam questions come from.
Reproduce the core statement of Roy Amara from memory before moving on to harder problems.

Reference excerpt

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925 – 31 December 2007) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering, and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Amara's law His adage, coined in 1978, about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run. The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology. The reasoning behind this quote is because of the intense reaction to the development of something new and innovative; but when that technology doesn't immediately affect our day to day lives, or there isn't a major impact in the world it is quickly forgotten about.

Selected bibliography

Books Amara, Roy; Boucher, Wayne I. (1977). National Science Foundation (ed.). The study of the future: an agenda for research. Washington, D.C.: General Post Office. OCLC 3200105. Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future: scenarios & strategies. New York: Pergamon Press. ISBN 9780080275451. Amara, Roy; Morrison, J. Ian; Schmid, Gregory (1988). Looking ahead at American health care. Washington, D.C.: McGraw-Hill, Healthcare Information Center. ISBN 9780070013841. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (2003). Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge (2nd ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470932513.

Reports Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). A framework for national science policy analysis (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4484161. P-18. Reprinted from IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 1 January 1972 Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). Toward a framework for national goals and policy research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 11724396. Reprinted from IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 5 November 1972 Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). The social responsibilities of business (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 5744644. Prepared for the White House Conference on the Industrial World Ahead, Washington, D.C., 2–9 February 1972 Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1973). Draft summaries of four workshops on the social impact of the computer (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 709544477. Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J.; Institute for the future (1974). Strategic planning: penetrating the corporate barriers (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4349610. Amara, Roy; World Future Society (1975). The next 25 years: crises and challenges (Report). Menlo Park, California: World Future Society. OCLC 3693807. P-31. Presented at the World Future Society Second General Assembly Plenary Session, June 2, 1975 Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Some methods of futures research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 2456542. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Emerging societal issues: some suggestions for research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 17817243. WP-22. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The U.S. in the decade ahead: an inventory of resources: American Vocational Association national convention, 4 December, 1978 (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7527420. P-72. Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Hubert; Spangler, Kathleen; Institute for the future (1978). Communication needs in computer modeling (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7511471. P-67. Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The future of voluntarism: meeting changing societal needs (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7293285. P-69. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Planning, futures and the skeptics (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 6661254. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Toward understanding the social impact of computers (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 1166342. R-29. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The future of management: ten shapers of management in the '80s (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 8390527. P-80. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). Imperatives for tomorrow: the I's have it: images, institutions, involvement (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7917815. P-87. Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The futures field (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7919207. P-95.

References

Illustrations

Worked examples

Example 1 — a first encounter with Roy Amara

Start with the simplest possible case. Write down what Roy Amara claims or describes in one sentence, then invent the smallest concrete situation in which that sentence is true. In science, the smallest case is usually a single object, a single equation or a single measurement. Check that every symbol or term in your sentence has a meaning in that case.

Example 2 — changing one variable

Take the situation from Example 1 and change exactly one quantity: double it, halve it, or set it to zero. Predict what should happen to Roy Amara before you calculate. Comparing your prediction with the result is the fastest way to find out whether you understand the idea or only the words.

Example 3 — an exam-style question

Typical questions about Roy Amara ask you to (a) state it precisely, (b) apply it to given data, and (c) explain a limitation. Practise writing all three answers in under five minutes; the third part is what separates a full-mark answer from an average one.

Applications of Roy Amara

In research: Roy Amara appears in science research whenever the underlying quantities have to be modelled precisely. Papers usually cite it as a starting assumption and then explore where it breaks down.
In technology and industry: Engineering practice reuses Roy Amara in design rules, simulations and safety margins. Knowing the idea lets you read a specification sheet and understand why the numbers look the way they do.
In the classroom: Roy Amara is common in secondary-school and first-year university syllabi. It links to neighbouring topics 1925 births, 2007 deaths, American futurologists, so understanding it makes those chapters shorter.
In everyday life: Look for Roy Amara outside the textbook — in sport, cooking, traffic, electronics or the sky above you. An example you found yourself is remembered far longer than one you were given.

Affiliate

Preply — study more efficiently by working with a personal tutor. 50% off.

How to study Roy Amara in 20 minutes

Read the reference excerpt below once, without taking notes.
Close the page and write down what Roy Amara means in your own words.
Compare your version with the excerpt and mark what you missed.
Work through the three examples above with pen and paper.
Explain Roy Amara out loud to somebody else — or to Teacher Smith in the lgStudy chat.

Frequently asked questions

What is Roy Amara in simple terms?

Why does Roy Amara matter?

Because it connects several science ideas at once: it gives you a definition you can apply, a quantity you can calculate, and a way to check whether a result is plausible.

How should I study Roy Amara?

Read the excerpt, restate it from memory, then work through the examples and applications listed on this page. The five-step study plan above takes about twenty minutes.

What does this page cover?

It gives you a compact reference excerpt plus original lgStudy explanations, examples, applications and study material on Roy Amara.