The saddlepoint approximation method, initially proposed by Daniels (1954) is a specific example of the mathematical saddlepoint technique applied to statistics, in particular to the distribution of the sum of N {\displaystyle N} independent random variables. It provides a highly accurate approximation formula for any PDF or probability mass function of a distribution, based on the moment generating function. There is also a formula for the CDF of the distribution, proposed by Lugannani and Rice (1980).
Definition If the moment generating function of a random variable X = ∑ i = 1 N X i {\displaystyle X=\sum _{i=1}^{N}X_{i}} is written as M ( t ) = E [ e t X ] = E [ e t ∑ i = 1 N X i ] {\displaystyle M(t)=E\left[e^{tX}\right]=E\left[e^{t\sum _{i=1}^{N}X_{i}}\right]} and the cumulant generating function as K ( t ) = log ( M ( t ) ) = ∑ i = 1 N log E [ e t X i ] {\displaystyle K(t)=\log(M(t))=\sum _{i=1}^{N}\log E\left[e^{tX_{i}}\right]} then the saddlepoint approximation to the PDF of the distribution X {\displaystyle X} is defined as:
f ^ X ( x ) = 1 2 π K ″ ( s ^ ) exp ( K ( s ^ ) − s ^ x ) ( 1 + R ) {\displaystyle {\hat {f}}_{X}(x)={\frac {1}{\sqrt {2\pi K''({\hat {s}})}}}\exp(K({\hat {s}})-{\hat {s}}x)\,\left(1+{\mathcal {R}}\right)}
where R {\displaystyle {\mathcal {R}}} contains higher order terms to refine the approximation and the saddlepoint approximation to the CDF is defined as:
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