The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC). Headquartered at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the contiguous United States. It issues convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions, and watches as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3 uses a probabilistic scale from a Marginal to Moderate risk (A Day 3 High risk cannot be issued), while Days 4–8 use a probabilistic scale determining the probability for a severe weather event in percentage categories (15%/yellow and 30%/orange). Mesoscale discussions are issued to provide information on certain individual regions where severe weather is becoming a threat and states whether a watch is likely and details thereof, particularly concerning conditions conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms in the short term, as well as situations of isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. Watches are issued when atmospheric conditions favor the development of severe weather. Once a storm/tornado is imminent or occurring (such as via weather spotters, radar, river gages, etc), a warning will be issued, and it usually precedes the onset of severe weather by one hour, although this sometimes varies depending on certain atmospheric conditions that may inhibit or accelerate convective development. The agency is also responsible for forecasting fire weather (indicating conditions that are favorable for wildfires) in the contiguous U.S., issuing fire weather outlooks for Days 1, 2, and 3–8, which detail areas with various levels of risk for fire conditions (such as fire levels and fire alerts).
History The Storm Prediction Center began in 1952 as SELS (Severe Local Storms Unit), as part of the U.S. Weather Bureau in Washington, D.C. In 1954, the unit moved its forecast operations to Kansas City, Missouri. SELS began issuing convective outlooks for predicted thunderstorm activity in 1955, and began issuing radar summaries in three-hour intervals in 1960; with the increased duties of compiling and disseminating radar summaries, this unit became the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) in 1966, remaining headquartered in Kansas City. In 1968, the National Severe Storms Forecast Center began issuing status reports on weather watches; the agency then made its first computerized data transmission in 1971. On April 2, 1982, the agency issued its first "Particularly Dangerous Situation" watch, which indicates the imminent threat of a major severe weather event over the watch's timespan. In 1986, the NSSFC introduced two new forecast products: the Day 2 Convective Outlook (which included outlined areas having a risk for severe thunderstorms the following day) and the Mesoscale Discussion (a short-term forecast outlining specific areas under threat for more imminent severe thunderstorm development). The National Severe Storms Forecast Center was renamed the Storm Prediction Center in October 1995, upon the creation of the NOAA-NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), of which it was a part. In January 1997, the Storm Prediction Center completed a relocation to Norman, Oklahoma. At that time, the center was located near the Max Westheimer Airport (now the University of Oklahoma Westheimer Airport), on the "North Base" property of the University of Oklahoma, sharing space with the National Severe Storms Laboratory. (This building was across from the local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office which, in addition to disseminating forecasts, oversees the issuance of weather warnings and advisories for the western two-thirds of Oklahoma and western portions of North Texas, and issues outline and status updates for SPC-issued severe thunderstorm and tornado watches that include areas served by the Norman office). In 1998, the Storm Prediction Center began issuing the National Fire Weather Outlook to provide forecasts for areas potentially susceptible to the development and spread of wildfires based on certain meteorological factors. The Day 3 Convective Outlook (which is similar in format to the Day 2 forecast) was first issued on an experimental basis in 2000, and became a routine product in 2001. In 2006, the Storm Prediction Center, National Severe Storms Laboratory and National Weather Service Norman Forecast Office moved their respective operations into the newly constructed National Weather Center, on the south edge of the University of Oklahoma Norman campus. Since the agency's relocation to Norman, the 557th Weather Wing at Offutt Air Force Base would assume control of issuing the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather products in the event that the SPC is no longer able to issue them in the event of an outage (such as a computer system failure or building-wide power disruption) or emergency (such as an approaching strong tornadic circulation or tornado on the ground) affecting the Norman campus; on April 1, 2009, the SPC reassigned responsibilities for issuing the center's products in such situations to the 15th Operational Weather Squadron based out of Scott Air Force Base. On March 17, 2025, ABC News, reporting from the word of an anonymous NOAA spokesperson, stated the Storm Prediction Center was set to be closed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a branch of the U.S. government created by President Donald Trump to eliminate government waste. DOGE had announced other NOAA office terminations during March 2025. ABC News also reported the SPC office was listed on DOGE's website, however, as of March 18, DOGE's website says its most recent update was on March 11.
Brief history timeline
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