The Strauss–Howe generational theory, devised by William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American and Western history in which historical events are associated with recurring generational personas called archetypes. Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a "turning") lasting around 21 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate ("mood") exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum", a long human life, which usually spans around 85 years, although some saecula have lasted longer. The theory states that a crisis recurs in American history after every saeculum, which is followed by a recovery ("high"). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which eventually creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis. Academic response to the theory has been mixed, with some applauding Strauss and Howe for their "bold and imaginative thesis", while others have criticized the theory as being overly deterministic, unfalsifiable, and unsupported by rigorous evidence. The theory has been influential in the fields of generational studies, marketing, and business management literature. However, the theory has also been described by some historians and journalists as pseudoscientific, "kooky", and "an elaborate historical horoscope that will never withstand scholarly scrutiny". Academic criticism has focused on the lack of rigorous empirical evidence for their claims, as well as the authors' view that generational groupings are more powerful than other social groupings, such as economic class, race/ethnicity, sex, religion, culture, and political affiliation.
History William Strauss and Neil Howe's partnership began in the late 1980s when they began writing their first book Generations, which discusses the history of the United States as a succession of generational biographies. Each had written on generational topics previously. The authors' interest in generations as a broader topic emerged after they met in Washington, D.C.; they began discussing the connections between each of their previous works.
They attempted to find the reason why the Baby boomers and the G.I. Generation had developed such different ways of looking at the world, and what it was about these generations' experiences growing up that prompted their different outlooks. They also wanted to find patterns in previous generations, and their research discussed historical analogs to the current generations. They ultimately described a recurring pattern in the Anglo-American history of four generational types, each with a distinct collective persona, and a corresponding cycle of four different types of eras, each with a distinct "mood". Strauss and Howe laid the groundwork for their theory in their book Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (1991), which discusses the history of the United States as a series of generational biographies going back to 1584. The theory was expanded in The Fourth Turning (1997), to focus on a fourfold cycle of generational types and recurring mood eras to describe the history of the United States, including the Thirteen Colonies and their British antecedents. However, the authors have also examined generational trends elsewhere in the world and described similar cycles in several developed countries. The terminology for generational archetypes was updated (e.g. "Civics" became "Heroes", which they applied to the Millennial Generation, "Adaptives" became "Artists"), and the terms "Turning" and "Saeculum" were introduced. In July 2023, Howe released a follow-up book, titled The Fourth Turning Is Here. In 1993, Strauss and Howe released their second book 13th Gen: Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail?, examining Generation X (who the authors called "13ers", describing them as the thirteenth generation since the US became a nation) who were then teenagers and young adults. The book asserts that 13ers' location in history as under-protected children during the Sexual Revolution explains their pragmatic attitude. They describe Gen Xers as growing up during a time when society was less focused on children and more focused on adults and their self-actualization. Strauss and Howe's theory made various predictions regarding Millennials, a generation consisting of young children at the time. In Generations (1991) and The Fourth Turning (1997), the two authors discussed the generation gap between Baby boomers and their parents and predicted there would be no such gap between Millennials and their elders. In 2000, they published Millennials Rising: The Next Great Generation, asserting that Millennial teens were recasting the image of youth from "downbeat and alienated to upbeat and engaged", crediting increased parental attention and protection for these positive changes. The authors predicted that over the following decade, Millennials could emerge as the next "Great Generation". In the mid-1990s, Strauss and Howe began receiving inquiries about how their research could be applied to strategic problems in organizations. They started speaking frequently about their work at events and conferences.
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