Sylvester's four point problem in geometric probability asks for the probability that four randomly chosen points in the Euclidean plane form a convex quadrilateral. Together with Buffon's needle problem, it has been called "one of the prime paradigms in geometric probability theory". The answer depends on the probability distribution from which the points are drawn, and finding a distribution for which this probability is small is closely connected to the crossing number of complete graphs. The problem was posed in 1864 by J. J. Sylvester, who asserted (with fallacious reasoning) that if the points are drawn from the entire plane then the probability is 3 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {3}{4}}} but that if they are drawn from a bounded convex set then the probability is bounded below 3 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {3}{4}}} . (Sylvester originally posed the problem in a complementary form, asking for the probability that four points do not form a convex quadrilateral, and giving answers 1 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {1}{4}}} and bounded above 1 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {1}{4}}} .) Among continuous uniform distributions over bounded convex sets the probability of a convex quadrilateral is maximized by any circle or ellipse (probability approximately 0.704) and minimized by any triangle (approximately 0.667). For uniform distributions over bounded open sets the minimum probability that can be achieved is unknown, but has upper and lower bounds that are both near 0.380.
Specific solutions
Sylvester, and Arthur Cayley, presumed that three of the points could be taken as forming the largest-area triangle of the four triangles determined by the points. This assumption limits the fourth point to a larger similar triangle, the anticomplementary triangle of the first three points, with four times the area. The four points form a convex quadrilateral if the fourth point does not also lie within the triangle of the first three points. The fraction of area of the anticomplementary triangle in which a convex quadrilateral is formed is 3 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {3}{4}}} . However, it is fallacious to use this reasoning to justify Sylvester's claim that the probability of obtaining a convex quadrilateral is 3 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {3}{4}}} : there is no uniform distribution on the entire plane from which one can draw four points and apply this sort of area argument. For four points chosen uniformly at random within a unit disk, the probability that they are in convex position is
1 − 35 12 π 2 ≈ 0.7045. {\displaystyle 1-{\frac {35}{12\pi ^{2}}}\approx 0.7045.}
This was calculated soon after Sylvester posed his problem by Wesley S. B. Woolhouse; Woolhouse then assumed (again, fallaciously) that the solution for the entire plane could be taken as a limit of disks with arbitrarily large radii, all having the same probability. The same probability applies to an ellipse. For points chosen uniformly at random from within a triangle, square, or regular hexagon (or their affine transformations, including the rectangles and parallelograms), the probabilities are respectively 2 3 ≈ 0.6667 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {2}{3}}\approx 0.6667} , 11 36 ≈ 0.6944 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {11}{36}}\approx 0.6944} , and 289 972 ≈ 0.7027 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {289}{972}}\approx 0.7027} . Among uniform distributions over convex shapes, the maximum probability of obtaining a convex quadrilateral is given by choosing random points in a disk, while the minimum probability is obtained by choosing points in a triangle. For points drawn from a two-dimensional Gaussian distribution, the probability of obtaining four points in convex position is
6 π arcsin 1 3 ≈ 0.6490. {\displaystyle {\frac {6}{\pi }}\arcsin {\frac {1}{3}}\approx 0.6490.}
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