In probability theory, it is possible to approximate the moments of a function f of a random variable X using Taylor expansions, provided that f is sufficiently differentiable and that the moments of X are finite.
A simulation-based alternative to this approximation is the application of Monte Carlo simulations.
First moment Given μ X {\displaystyle \mu _{X}} and σ X 2 {\displaystyle \sigma _{X}^{2}} , the mean and the variance of X {\displaystyle X} , respectively, a Taylor expansion of the expected value of f ( X ) {\displaystyle f(X)} can be found via
E [ f ( X ) ]
= E [ f ( μ X + ( X − μ X ) ) ]
≈ E [ f ( μ X ) + f ′ ( μ X ) ( X − μ X ) + 1 2 f ″ ( μ X ) ( X − μ X ) 2 ]
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