Tessaleno Campos Devezas (born 4 December 1946 in Rio de Janeiro) is a Brazilian-born Portuguese physicist, systems theorist, and materials scientist. He is best known for his contributions to the long waves theory in socioeconomic development, technological evolution, energy systems as well as world system analysis. Member of the World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation.
Awards In March 2002, Devezas was honored with the "Elsevier Best Paper Prize 2001" for his paper proposing a model explaining the mechanism underlying the long economic waves (Kondratieff waves) and, in 2006, another of his papers (about the growth dynamics of the Internet) received an Honor Mention from Elsevier. In 2004, he was awarded with the Silver Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation and the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (RAEN) for his written contributions for the understanding of the Kondratieff waves, and, in 2005, he was honored as Honorary Member of the International Kondratieff Foundation.
Selected papers on socioeconomic development and systems theory The following list does not include this author's publications on materials science and engineering.
The Biological Determinants of Long Wave Behavior in Socioeconomic Growth and Development, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 68 (2001), pp. 1–57 (with James Corredine). The Nonlinear Dynamics of Technoeconomic Systems: An Informational Interpretation, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 69 (2002), pp. 317–357 (with J. Corredine). Power Law Behavior and World System Evolution: a Millennial Learning Process, LAUR 02-5221, Los Alamos National Laboratory, August 2002. Published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70 (2003), pp. 819–859 (with G. Modelski). The Growth Dynamics of the Internet and the Long Wave Theory, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005), pp. 913–935 (with H.A. Linstone e H.J.S. Santos). Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: State-of-the-Art and New Approaches Technological Forecasting and Social Change 72 (2005) pp. 1137–1152 (special issue on New Horizons and Challenges for Future Oriented Technology Analysis). Evolutionary Theory of Technological Change: Discussion on Missing Points and Promising Approaches IIASA IR-05-49 (20 pages), December 2005. The Portuguese as System Builders in the XVth-XVIth centuries: A Case Study on the Role of Technology in the Evolution of the World System Globalizations 3 (2006) pp. 503–519 (with George Modelski). Political Globalization is Global Political Evolution World Futures 63 (2007) pp. 1–16. Energy Scenarios: Toward a New Energy Paradigm, FUTURES 40 (2008), pp 1–16m(with D. LePoire, J.C.O. Matias e A.M.P. Silva). Crisis, Depressions, Expansions – Global Trends and Secular Analysis, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77 (2010) pp. 739–761. On phase transitions, catastrophes, and sudden changes, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77 (2010) pp. 1412–1422. How Many Singularities are Near and How They Disrupt Society, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 (2011) 1365-1378 (with C. Magee). Technological Innovation and The Long Wave Theory, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 79 (2012) pp. 414–416 (with H. Linstone). The Struggle for Space: Past and Future of the Space Race, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(2012) pp. 963–985 (with F. Melo, M.C. Salgado, M.L. Gregori, J. Ribeiro and C. Devezas). Influence of cable losses on the economic analysis of efficient and sustainable electrical equipment, Energy 65 (2014) pp 145 – 151.(with J.A. Lobão, and J.S. Catalão) Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from decreased losses in the conductors of an electrical installation, Energy Conversion and Management, 87 (2014) pp. 787–795 (with J.A. Lobão, and J.S. Catalão) Do R&D and licensing strategies influence start-ups' growth?, International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, 25 (2015) pp. 148–170. (with D. Pereira and J. Leitão) Energy efficiency of lighting installations: Software application and experimental validation, (2015) Energy Reports, 1, pp. 110–115. (with J.A. Lobão, and J.S. Catalão) A Changing Scenario: The NewSpace Agenda, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 8 (2016) pp. 5–7 High-altitude platforms – present situation and technology trends, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 8(3) (2016) pp. 249 – 262 (with F. D’Oliveira and F.C.L. de Melo) A Simple Extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 117 (2017) pp. 196 – 205 (with C. Magee) Specifying technology and rebound in the IPAT identity, Procedia Manufacturing 21 (2018) pp. 476 – 485 (with C. Magee) Space Propulsion: a Survey Study about Current and Future Trends, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 10 (2018) pp. 1 – 23 (with M.C.V. Salgado and M.C.N. Belderrain) Innovation output estimation method for a national innovation system: application to the BRIC countries, International Journal of Multivariate Data Analysis 1(3)(2018) pp. 261 – 279 (with L.C. Pelicioni, J.R. Ribeiro, R.A. Scarpel, M.C.N. Belderrain, and F.C.L. de Melo) Near-Term Indications and Models of a Singularity, The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. A Big History Perspective (Springer, 2020) Aeronautics and Covid 19 – A reciprocal cause and effect phenomenon, Journal of Aerospace Technology and Management 12 (2020) e3420 The struggle SARS-CoV-2 vs Homo Sapiens: Why the Earth stood still, and how will it keep moving on, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 160, (2020) Trends in aviation: Rebound effect and the struggle composites x aluminum, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 160, (2020) November Forecasting the labor intensity and labor income share for G7 countries in the digital age, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 168, (2021) February, 120675, (with A. Akaev, Y. Ichkitidze, A. Sarygulov) On the global time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic: Logistic modelling, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 175, (2021) December, 121387 (with L.C.Miranda)
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