Threatcasting

Key takeaways

Threatcasting belongs to science; place it in that map before memorising details.
Learn the definition first, then one example that makes the definition concrete.
Connect Threatcasting to a quantity you can measure, compute or draw — that is where exam questions come from.
Reproduce the core statement of Threatcasting from memory before moving on to harder problems.

Reference excerpt

Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future. Utilizing the threatcasting process, groups explore possible future threats and how to transform the future they desire into reality while avoiding undesired futures. Threatcasting is a continuous, multiple-step process with inputs from social science, technical research, cultural history, economics, trends, expert interviews, and science fiction storytelling. These inputs inform the exploration of potential visions of the future. Once inputs are explored for impact and application, participants create a science fiction story (science fiction prototyping) based ten years in the future to add context around human activity. Science Fiction Prototyping consists of a future story about a person in a place doing a thing. The threatcasting process results in creation of many potential futures scenarios—some futures are desirable while others are not. Identifying both types of futures (desirable and undesirable) will help the participant recognize which future to aim toward, and which to avoid. Utilizing the scenarios, participants plot actions necessary in the present and at various intervals working toward the ten year future scenario. These actions will help participants understand how to empower or disrupt the target future scenario. Flags (warning events) are also determined in order to map societal indicators onto the recommended path toward the targeted future. When identified flags appear in society, threatcasting participants map these back to the original forecast to see whether or not they are on track toward the target future scenario.

Origins

The notion of threatcasting can be traced back to Brian David Johnson, an applied futurist, who first began using threatcasting, also referred to as futurecasting, in 2011 and to George Hemingway of the Stratalis Group, who pioneered notion of futurecasting for corporate strategy and innovation industrial markets, including mining in the same year. Early adopters of threatcasting include the United States Air Force Academy, the Government of California, and the Army Cyber Institute at West Point Military Academy. Official use of the term threatcasting is attributed to Brian David Johnson in a 2014 Gazette article “Drones, smart hydrants considered by experts looking at future of firefighting.” and to George Hemingway, who referenced the same in a 2013 article on "Futurecasting the mining industry".

Differences between threatcasting and strategic planning Threatcasting is different from traditional strategic planning and scenario analysis processes due to the identification of specific actions, indicators and concrete steps that can be taken today to disrupt, mitigate and recover from future threats.

Applications The Army Cyber Institute at West Point in conjunction with Arizona State University's Global Securities Initiative and the School for the Future of Innovation in Society have established a Threatcasting Lab to host and manage a Cyber Threatcasting Project which looks to envision future cyber threats ten years in the future. The first session of this collaborative group was held at West Point, NY in August 2016.

Worked examples

Example 1 — a first encounter with Threatcasting

Start with the simplest possible case. Write down what Threatcasting claims or describes in one sentence, then invent the smallest concrete situation in which that sentence is true. In science, the smallest case is usually a single object, a single equation or a single measurement. Check that every symbol or term in your sentence has a meaning in that case.

Example 2 — changing one variable

Take the situation from Example 1 and change exactly one quantity: double it, halve it, or set it to zero. Predict what should happen to Threatcasting before you calculate. Comparing your prediction with the result is the fastest way to find out whether you understand the idea or only the words.

Example 3 — an exam-style question

Typical questions about Threatcasting ask you to (a) state it precisely, (b) apply it to given data, and (c) explain a limitation. Practise writing all three answers in under five minutes; the third part is what separates a full-mark answer from an average one.

Applications of Threatcasting

In research: Threatcasting appears in science research whenever the underlying quantities have to be modelled precisely. Papers usually cite it as a starting assumption and then explore where it breaks down.
In technology and industry: Engineering practice reuses Threatcasting in design rules, simulations and safety margins. Knowing the idea lets you read a specification sheet and understand why the numbers look the way they do.
In the classroom: Threatcasting is common in secondary-school and first-year university syllabi. It links to neighbouring topics Futures techniques, Strategy, so understanding it makes those chapters shorter.
In everyday life: Look for Threatcasting outside the textbook — in sport, cooking, traffic, electronics or the sky above you. An example you found yourself is remembered far longer than one you were given.

How to study Threatcasting in 20 minutes

Read the reference excerpt below once, without taking notes.
Close the page and write down what Threatcasting means in your own words.
Compare your version with the excerpt and mark what you missed.
Work through the three examples above with pen and paper.
Explain Threatcasting out loud to somebody else — or to Teacher Smith in the lgStudy chat.

Frequently asked questions

What is Threatcasting in simple terms?

Threatcasting is a conceptual framework used to help multidisciplinary groups envision future scenarios. It is also a process that enables systematic planning against threats ten years in the future.

Why does Threatcasting matter?

Because it connects several science ideas at once: it gives you a definition you can apply, a quantity you can calculate, and a way to check whether a result is plausible.

How should I study Threatcasting?

Read the excerpt, restate it from memory, then work through the examples and applications listed on this page. The five-step study plan above takes about twenty minutes.

What does this page cover?

It gives you a compact reference excerpt plus original lgStudy explanations, examples, applications and study material on Threatcasting.