science

Three Horizons

Three Horizons is a science topic covered in the lgStudy science library. This page brings together a partial reference excerpt, illustrations, worked examples, real-world applications and a short study plan, so you can understand Three Horizons rather than just read about it. In short: Three Horizons (or 3H) is a framework and method for futures studies and practice, created and developed by Anthony Hodgson, Andrew Curry, Graham Leicester, Bill Sharpe, Andrew Lyon and Ioan Fazey. It presents a picture of change in a given system as an interplay of three horizons.

Key takeaways

Three Horizons belongs to science; place it in that map before memorising details.
Learn the definition first, then one example that makes the definition concrete.
Connect Three Horizons to a quantity you can measure, compute or draw — that is where exam questions come from.
Reproduce the core statement of Three Horizons from memory before moving on to harder problems.

Reference excerpt

Three Horizons (or 3H) is a framework and method for futures studies and practice, created and developed by Anthony Hodgson, Andrew Curry, Graham Leicester, Bill Sharpe, Andrew Lyon and Ioan Fazey. It presents a picture of change in a given system as an interplay of three horizons. Horizon 1 (H1) is the currently dominant but failing system that declines over time as it loses its fit with a changing environment. Horizon 3 (H3) is the envisioned desired future that is aligned to the changing environment. Horizon 2 (H2) is a turbulent intermediate space of innovations, some of which are 'captured' by H1, prop it up and extend its lifespan (so-called 'H2-' innovations), and some of which are genuinely disruptive and create space for a radically different kind of system to emerge ('H2+' innovations). The framework also illustrates the existence of 'pockets of the future in the present': niche examples of actors and systems working in a radically different way to the mainstream, which already embody H3 values. In addition, some aspects of H1 will remain valuable in the desired future.

3H is commonly used in workshop settings to help organisations and actors create strategies for transformational change (i.e. fundamental change that shifts underlying values and worldviews, rather than more superficial kinds of change), often in order to adapt to wider trends and crises.

History 3H was created in 2006 from an adaptation of McKinsey & Company's 'three horizons of growth' framework. A paper describing the 3H framework in detail was published in 2016 in the journal Ecology & Society.

Use examples 3H has been used by various organisations around the world, including the United Nations Development Programme, UNICEF. Impact Amplified lists 3H use examples in its 'Three Horizons Use Case Library'. Contexts in which 3H has been used include:

'[Engaging] young people from around the world in a foresight process to identify and support youth-led climate breakthroughs' Identifying priority domains of action for transforming towards a regenerative food system in Yorkshire Exploring desired urban futures in a number of cities around the world Identifying actions to increase coastal community resilience against environmental shocks in Valiathura, India Drawing on local ecological knowledge to identify adaptation pathways to reduce wildfire risk in Montseny, Catalonia Exploring the future of sport and recreation in New Zealand Exploring the future of geoscience

References

Illustrations

Worked examples

Example 1 — a first encounter with Three Horizons

Start with the simplest possible case. Write down what Three Horizons claims or describes in one sentence, then invent the smallest concrete situation in which that sentence is true. In science, the smallest case is usually a single object, a single equation or a single measurement. Check that every symbol or term in your sentence has a meaning in that case.

Example 2 — changing one variable

Take the situation from Example 1 and change exactly one quantity: double it, halve it, or set it to zero. Predict what should happen to Three Horizons before you calculate. Comparing your prediction with the result is the fastest way to find out whether you understand the idea or only the words.

Example 3 — an exam-style question

Typical questions about Three Horizons ask you to (a) state it precisely, (b) apply it to given data, and (c) explain a limitation. Practise writing all three answers in under five minutes; the third part is what separates a full-mark answer from an average one.

Applications of Three Horizons

In research: Three Horizons appears in science research whenever the underlying quantities have to be modelled precisely. Papers usually cite it as a starting assumption and then explore where it breaks down.
In technology and industry: Engineering practice reuses Three Horizons in design rules, simulations and safety margins. Knowing the idea lets you read a specification sheet and understand why the numbers look the way they do.
In the classroom: Three Horizons is common in secondary-school and first-year university syllabi. It links to neighbouring topics Futures studies, McKinsey & Company, so understanding it makes those chapters shorter.
In everyday life: Look for Three Horizons outside the textbook — in sport, cooking, traffic, electronics or the sky above you. An example you found yourself is remembered far longer than one you were given.

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How to study Three Horizons in 20 minutes

Read the reference excerpt below once, without taking notes.
Close the page and write down what Three Horizons means in your own words.
Compare your version with the excerpt and mark what you missed.
Work through the three examples above with pen and paper.
Explain Three Horizons out loud to somebody else — or to Teacher Smith in the lgStudy chat.

Frequently asked questions

What is Three Horizons in simple terms?

Why does Three Horizons matter?

Because it connects several science ideas at once: it gives you a definition you can apply, a quantity you can calculate, and a way to check whether a result is plausible.

How should I study Three Horizons?

Read the excerpt, restate it from memory, then work through the examples and applications listed on this page. The five-step study plan above takes about twenty minutes.

What does this page cover?

It gives you a compact reference excerpt plus original lgStudy explanations, examples, applications and study material on Three Horizons.