Uncertainty management theory (UMT), developed by Dale Brashers, addresses the concept of uncertainty management. Several theories have been developed in an attempt to define uncertainty, identify its effects and establish strategies for managing it. Uncertainty management theory was the first theory to decline the idea that uncertainty is negative. It was developed and has been applied considering uncertainty neutral; neither positive nor negative. Although viewed as neutral, researchers of uncertainty management propose that uncertainty can be utilized strategically for beneficial purposes while also acknowledging that the effects of uncertainty can be harmful, espousing an approach that requires examination of each situation, the parties involved, the issues at stake and the desired objectives for determining the best method for managing uncertainty, with reduction being one of the many management techniques.
Background
Uncertainty Management Theory (UMT) was developed by Dale Brashers, an associate professor of Speech Communication at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign. Brashers died in 2010 after spending more than 20 years researching uncertainty management. Before Brashers' work, the most prominent literature in the field of uncertainty management was that of Charles Berger. Berger's Uncertainty Reduction Theory (URT) continues to be the dominant theory of uncertainty management, with much of the additional work on this topic being a continuation of Berger's research. This includes the work of William Gudykunst, who continued with Berger's line of thinking, partnering together with him on Anxiety-Uncertainty Management (AUM) theory. Both of these theories focus on the idea that uncertainty produces anxiety. Because of the anxiety produced by heightened levels of uncertainty, individuals are highly motivated to reduce uncertainty. Uncertainty Reduction posits that individuals would rather receive bad news than continue in a state of uncertainty. This thinking was widely accepted, with uncertainty being studied almost exclusively through this lens before the introduction of UMT. With UMT, Brashers established that to fully understand the effects of uncertainty and how uncertainty contributes to various aspects of human life humanity must first move away from the idea that all uncertainty is negative. Brashers approached uncertainty as neutral (neither good nor bad), acknowledging that uncertainty reduction is one of many possible responses to situations that are lacking in the information necessary for full understanding. Brashers notes, however, that individuals will sometimes choose to remain in a state of uncertainty even though reduction opportunities are available.
Aspects of uncertainty Uncertainty is an unavoidable aspect of everyday life. The degree to which it is felt in a given situation varies among individuals. Because uncertainty is dependent upon perspective, "a person who believes himself or herself to be uncertain is uncertain." However, people have different appetites and tolerances for uncertainty. For some, the existence of uncertainty is stimulating or perhaps even exhilarating, whereas others can be highly motivated to reduce even the slightest degree of uncertainty. The idea of exhilarating uncertainty could best be illustrated by an individual's decision to participate in an extreme recreational activity such as skydiving, bungee jumping or parasailing. Personal tolerance for uncertainty will determine how willing a person is to invest when the likelihood of the desired outcome is unclear; whether this investment is monetary, relational or otherwise. Babrow (1992) applied this principle to research around uncertainty and probability, stating that uncertainty is at its peak when the probability of the outcome is at or near 50%; while extremely low or extremely high probability reduces uncertainty.
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