Variational message passing (VMP) is an approximate inference technique for continuous- or discrete-valued Bayesian networks, with conjugate-exponential parents, developed by John Winn. VMP was developed as a means of generalizing the approximate variational methods used by such techniques as latent Dirichlet allocation, and works by updating an approximate distribution at each node through messages in the node's Markov blanket.
Likelihood lower bound
Given some set of hidden variables H {\displaystyle H} and observed variables V {\displaystyle V} , the goal of approximate inference is to maximize a lower-bound on the probability that a graphical model is in the configuration V {\displaystyle V} . Over some probability distribution Q {\displaystyle Q} (to be defined later),
ln P ( V ) = ∑ H Q ( H ) ln P ( H , V ) P ( H | V ) = ∑ H Q ( H ) [ ln P ( H , V ) Q ( H ) − ln P ( H | V ) Q ( H ) ] {\displaystyle \ln P(V)=\sum _{H}Q(H)\ln {\frac {P(H,V)}{P(H|V)}}=\sum _{H}Q(H){\Bigg [}\ln {\frac {P(H,V)}{Q(H)}}-\ln {\frac {P(H|V)}{Q(H)}}{\Bigg ]}} . So, if we define our lower bound to be
L ( Q ) = ∑ H Q ( H ) ln P ( H , V ) Q ( H ) {\displaystyle L(Q)=\sum _{H}Q(H)\ln {\frac {P(H,V)}{Q(H)}}} , then the likelihood is simply this bound plus the relative entropy between P {\displaystyle P} and Q {\displaystyle Q} . Because the relative entropy is non-negative, the function L {\displaystyle L} defined above is indeed a lower bound of the log likelihood of our observation V {\displaystyle V} . The distribution Q {\displaystyle Q} will have a simpler character than that of P {\displaystyle P} because marginalizing over P {\displaystyle P} is intractable for all but the simplest of graphical models. In particular, VMP uses a factorized distribution
Q ( H ) = ∏ i Q i ( H i ) , {\displaystyle Q(H)=\prod _{i}Q_{i}(H_{i}),}
where H i {\displaystyle H_{i}} is a disjoint part of the graphical model.
Determining the update rule The likelihood estimate needs to be as large as possible; because it's a lower bound, getting closer log P {\displaystyle \log P} improves the approximation of the log likelihood. By substituting in the factorized version of Q {\displaystyle Q} , L ( Q ) {\displaystyle L(Q)} , parameterized over the hidden nodes H i {\displaystyle H_{i}} as above, is simply the negative relative entropy between Q j {\displaystyle Q_{j}} and Q j ∗ {\displaystyle Q_{j}^{*}} plus other terms independent of Q j {\displaystyle Q_{j}} if Q j ∗ {\displaystyle Q_{j}^{*}} is defined as
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