The Vela incident was an atmospheric nuclear explosion that occurred on 22 September 1979, near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, roughly midway between Africa and Antarctica. This explosion is widely believed to have been an undeclared test of an Israeli nuclear weapon on the ocean surface, carried out with assistance from South Africa. Initially detected as a double flash of light by an American Vela Hotel satellite, further meteorological satellite, hydroacoustic, and radionuclide data support the event's identification as an atmospheric nuclear explosion. In 1980, US President Jimmy Carter wrote in his diary, "We have a growing belief among our scientists that the Israelis did indeed conduct a nuclear test explosion in the ocean near the southern end of Africa." Experts have suggested the weapon tested was a neutron bomb and/or nuclear artillery round, and that Israel may have carried out other nuclear tests. It was the second most recent atmospheric nuclear explosion in history, preceding China's Operation 21-716 test in 1980. If conducted by Israel, it was in contravention of Israel's 1964 ratification of the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. The previous 41 double flashes detected by the Vela satellites were caused by atmospheric nuclear tests. Some traces of potential nuclear fallout were detected in Australia but not New Zealand. Some information about the event remains classified by the United States government. Its Department of Defense initially suggested a combination of phenomena such as lightning and a meteoroid hitting the satellite.
Detection
The "double flash", then dubbed the South Atlantic flash, was detected on 22 September 1979, at 00:53 UTC, by the American Vela satellite OPS 6911 (also known as Vela 10 and Vela 5B), which carried various sensors designed to detect nuclear explosions that contravened the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (assuming that it was done by a signatory). As well as being able to detect gamma rays, X-rays, and neutrons, the satellite also contained two silicon solid-state bhangmeter sensors that could detect the dual light flashes associated with an atmospheric nuclear explosion: the initial brief, intense flash, followed by a second, longer flash. The satellite reported a double flash potentially characteristic of an atmospheric nuclear explosion of two to three kilotons, in the Indian Ocean between the Crozet Islands (a sparsely inhabited French possession) and the Prince Edward Islands (which belong to South Africa) at 47°S 40°E. Acoustic data of the Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS), established by the United States to detect Soviet submarines, and the Missile Impact Locating System (MILS), designed to detect missile nose cone impact locations of test missiles in the Atlantic and Pacific test ranges, were searched for evidence of a nuclear detonation in the region. These data were found not to have enough substantial evidence of a detonation of a nuclear weapon but a detailed, affirming study regarding MILS data correlating with time and location of the Vela flash was not considered in that finding. United States Air Force (USAF) surveillance aircraft flew 25 sorties over that area of the Indian Ocean from 22 September to 29 October 1979 to carry out atmospheric sampling. Studies of wind patterns confirmed that fallout from an explosion in the southern Indian Ocean could have been carried from there to southwestern Australia. It was reported that low levels of iodine-131 (a short-half-life product of nuclear fission) were detected in sheep in the southeastern Australian states of Victoria and Tasmania soon after the event. Sheep in New Zealand showed no such trace. The Arecibo Observatory, in Puerto Rico, detected an anomalous ionospheric wave during the morning of 22 September 1979, which moved from the southeast to the northwest, an event that had not been observed previously.
After the event was made public, the United States Department of Defense (DOD) clarified that it was either a bomb blast or a combination of natural phenomena, such as lightning, a meteor, or a glint from the sun. The initial assessment by the United States National Security Council (NSC), with technical support from the Naval Research Laboratory, in October 1979 was that the American intelligence community had "high confidence" that the event was a low-yield nuclear explosion, although no radioactive debris had been detected and there were "no corroborating seismic or hydro-acoustic data". A later NSC report revised this position to "inconclusive" about whether a nuclear test had occurred. The report concluded that if a nuclear test had been carried out, responsibility should be ascribed to the South African weapons programme.
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