White demographic decline is a decrease in the White populace numerically or as a percentage of the total population in a city, state, subregion, or nation. It has been recorded in a number of countries and smaller jurisdictions. For example, according to national censuses, White Americans, White Canadians, White Latin Americans, and White Britons are in demographic decline in the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the United Kingdom, respectively. White demographic decline can also be observed in other countries including Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, Italy, France, and Zimbabwe. Scholars have attempted to address subfactors and anticipated results of White demographic decline in relevant societies. The term majority minority has been used to designate an area where a decline, of what are nationally defined as Whites, has resulted in a former majority becoming a minority. In recent decades, White demographic decline has become a political touchstone for far-right political groups, inspiring conspiracy theories and terrorist violence. The politicization of White demographic decline has also manifested as anti-abortion, anti-immigrant and natalist sentiment. Academic evidence indicates that immigration significantly contributes to the maintenance of economies, civic institutions, and population levels in places affected by White demographic decline, such as in the Southern United States.
Overview
Definition White demographic decline has been statistically observed by academics in relation to countries which conduct a national census and include a white racial or ethnic category. Notable experts and scholars of a multitude of fields of study have observed the demographic phenomenon of falling white demography. These include anthropologists Leo Chavez, Arizona State University's Luis Plascencia, Rich Benjamin, and University of Louisville's Steven Gardiner. Demographers such as William H. Frey, Eric Kaufmann, Rogelio Sáenz, Dudley L. Poston Jr., Ann Morning, and David Coleman. Social geographers such as Loughborough University's Marco Antonsich, and Syracuse University's Jamie Winders, and political scientists Elliot Jager, and Robert Pape, have studied white demographic decline as a measurable and observable process. Historians Trevor Burnard, and Mark Sedgwick have published works defining the demographic process in various jurisdictions. While they suggest that the white population share is falling in the United States, sociologist Richard Alba and demographer Dowell Myers have stated that this decline is divisive and exaggerated somewhat by the census format. Nonetheless, many academics, such as Nicholas Lemann, suggest the decline will affect national election results in the US.
Demography in national censuses Various national demographic analyses measured a demographic decline of white populations, as defined by their local nation-based censuses. Research conducted at the University of Minnesota has observed the phenomenon of a decrease in white population share within jurisdictions in Europe, North America and Oceania:
According to the most recent U.S. census, the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking (US Census Bureau, 2018). This trend has been observed in other White-majority countries including Canada (Statistics Canada, 2017), the UK (Coleman, 2016), and New Zealand (Stats New Zealand, 2004). Regarding white populations internationally, and particularly in the Western world, demographer Eric Kaufmann has suggested that "In an era of unprecedented white demographic decline it is absolutely vital for it to have a democratic outlet." While sociologist Richard Alba believes this decline is exaggerated by the racial classification system used in the United States Census, regarding the 2020 census, demographer William H. Frey has written:
The Census Bureau was not projecting white population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any national population growth even more reliant on other race and ethnic groups. The white demographic decline is largely attributable to its older age structure when compared to other race and ethnic groups. This leads to fewer births and more deaths relative to its population size.
Statistical terms
Majority minority
As well as referencing ethno-cultural, linguistic, and religious demography, the term 'majority minority' has consistently been used in racial contexts in media and academia, and specifically to identify the demographic decline of white populations. In 2010, it was reported by the BBC how "America's two largest states – California and Texas – became 'majority-minority' states (with an overall minority population outnumbering the white majority)" between 1998 and 2004. Demographers Rogelio Sáenz and Dudley L. Poston Jr. have studied existing states which have gained white minorities in the 21st century, and how, from 2017 onwards, an ongoing falling white population-share predicts further US states to follow this trend: "nonwhites account for more than half of the populations of Hawaii, the District of Columbia, California, New Mexico, Texas and Nevada. In the next 10 to 15 years, these half-dozen 'majority-minority' states will likely be joined by as many as eight other states where whites now make up less than 60 percent of the population." From their research, Sáenz and Poston Jr expect the United States to have progressed to overall white minority demography by 2044. Regarding various projected majority minority scenarios across the Western world, in a 2018 article for the London School of Economics, academics Eric Kaufmann and Matthew Goodwin wrote:
The ethnic make-up of many western countries is changing, and in countries previously seen as having 'white' majorities that past predominance is declining. In the United States, Canada and New Zealand, the 'majority-minority' point will arrive around 2050, while in western Europe it is projected to occur towards the end of the century. Some commentators have asked if this change may lead to a growing reaction or 'white backlash'. All else being equal, we suggest that the answer may be yes. An example from the developing world includes Brazil which, due to a long-term demographic decline of white Brazilians, has been designated as a majority-minority country in relation to the South American nation's racial classification of whiteness.
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